Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Utility/Food Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -3.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.0 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.35%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -.84% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -3.2%

• NYSE Arms .70 -46.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.6 +.44%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 312.12 -1.57%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 364.0 +18.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.3 -1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 261.3 -.27%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.2 -4.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.67 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.94 +.69%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 24.25 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 804.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.6 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52. +5.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.1 -4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +8.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -5.6%  +.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.79 +.05:  Growth Rate +8.2% unch., P/E 18.9 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.88 +.27: Growth Rate +47.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.0 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .47 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .10 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) +9.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.63% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 63.9%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 61.3%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +88 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.0% 2) Foods -.7% 3) Telecom -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARLP, GNL, AVGO, DG, PD, WBA, ERII, PARA, MLTX, WBD, OLN, NXST, SBGI and VFS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DELL 2) EDR 3) WBD 4) ARCC 5) HZNP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OLN 2) DG 3) DKS 4) AVGO 5) STLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +4.0% 2) Oil Service +3.1% 3) Regional Banks +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DELL, NTNX, LOVE, IOT, SLRN, HE, PTEN, RLAY, PSTG, OII, NXGN, COGT, CDLX, TDW, IMVT, GCT, XMTR, ALLY, VERV, CEIX, AMR, TXG, HPE, ACMR, LRN, LPG, CDLX, S, MDB, WWE, DOMO, LBRT, CRGY, DVN, MOD, VEEV, OKTA, PEGA and BTU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DELL 2) FOXA 3) DBI 4) NTNX 5) LULU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DELL 2) NTNX 3) EOSE 4) AMRK 5) ESTC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CRMT)/.91

After the Close: 

• (AVAV)/.26
• (ASAN)/-.11
• (ZS)/.49
  

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for July is estimated to fall -2.5% versus a +2.3% gain in June.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, Citi BioPharma Conference, Barclays Consumer Staples Conference, Barclays Energy-Power Conference, Citi Tech/GEMS Conference and the Goldman Communacopia Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -11.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 -.5
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 69.7% of Issues Advancing, 27.4% Declining
• 98 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 50.9%(+5.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.2 +2.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,624.1 -.61%
• 1-Day Vix 9.5 -25.2%
  
• Vix 13.3 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -53%
• TRIN/Arms .68 -48.1%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Asia’s Manufacturing Slump Persists as Economies Lose Steam.
• The US, Allies See Opportunity and Risk in China’s Slowing Economy. 
• China State Media Declares Huawei Phone a Victory in US Tech War.
• China Cuts Down Payment, Mortgage Rates in Stimulus Drive.
• Traders Are Bailing on the Euro as Talk of Stagflation Heats Up.
• Taiwan Banks’ Participation in China Loans Falls to Record Low.
• China's Leaders Lack 'Shared Values' With US, Pelosi Says. 
• Putin Moves to Seize Control of Wagner’s Mercenary Empire. 
• Asian Stocks Trade Mixed Ahead of US Jobs Data: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Heads for Robust Weekly Gain as Russia to Extend Export Cuts.
• How a Downturn in ESG-Linked Loans Prompted a Rethink.
• Barclays Sets Aside Balance Sheet Cash for Private Credit Push.
• Arm to Hold Roadshow After Labor Day, With IPO Pricing Sept. 13.
• Every AI Startup Wants a Piece of Anguilla — for Its Web Domain. 
• Investors With $8 Trillion Target Australia Over Climate Change.
• Broadcom Gives Downbeat Forecast, Signaling Sluggish Chip Demand.
• Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Rise Modestly, Spending Jumps.

Zero Hedge:

• Hunter Biden's Firm And Vice President Biden's Office Exchanged Over 1,000 Emails.
• Tucker Warns Of Trump Assassination, Hot War With Russia. 
• STVR/Airbnb Has Destroyed America's Resort Towns.
• Fox "Is Run By Small-Minded, Fearful Women", Trump "Broke A Lot Of People's Brains" - Tucker & Portnoy Talk Politics, PENN, & Pizza-Fights.
• Sweetened Drinks Are Linked to Chronic Liver Disease And Liver Cancer.
• Ukraine's FM Tells Critics Of Counteroffensive To "Shut Up" After NYT Piece.
• Don’t Look Up! 'Orwellian' AI Traffic Cameras Raise Privacy Concerns.
• Proud Boys Leader Joseph Biggs Sentenced To 17 Years In Prison As 'Terrorist' Over Role In J6.
• Why Won't COVID Lockdown Tyrants Admit They Were Wrong?
• Open Border Blowback: Report Warns "Cartel-Run Theft Rings" Supercharge America's Retail Shrink Epidemic.
• Philly Fed GDPplus Measure Sure Looks Like Recession Started In Q4 2022.
• Oil Closes At Second Highest Level Of 2023 Amid Plunging Oil Inventories.
• Goldman Trader: It's Hard To Imagine A World Where We Don't See Higher Volatility.
• US stocks were mixed on Thursday with NDX outperforming, SPX and RUT flat while the Dow lagged - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Banks' Usage Of The Fed's Emergency Facility Hits New Record High As Money-Market Fund Inflows Resume.
• Puts tumbling, oil teasing and QT thundering.
• From One Unapologetic Media Hoax To The Next.
• Stocks mixed and bonds bid amid month-end ahead of NFP - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds, Stocks, Commodities, & Crypto Hit In 'Hawkish' August As Dollar Soared.

Wall Street Journal:

• EV Boom Remakes Rural Towns in the American South.
• Ukraine Pierces Main Russian Defensive Line.
• Politicians Love to Talk. Just Not About Their Health.
• The Real Story of Musk’s Twitter Takeover.
• August’s Jobs Report: Here’s What to Focus On.
• UAW Accuses GM, Stellantis of Unfair Labor Practices.
• Gun-Show Sellers Must Do Background Checks Under Proposed Rule.

CNBC.com:

• Global growth is set to slow — but there are ‘pockets of resilience,’ Moody’s says.
• Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Barbenheimer are lifting consumer spending this quarter. It may not last.
• U.S. health officials want to loosen marijuana restrictions. Here’s what it means for the industry.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Dell, Lululemon and MongoDB.
• Lululemon ups guidance after ‘strong’ growth in China boosts quarterly sales
• Why student loans may be the next bubble.
• FEMA is down to its last $3.4 billion as Maui wildfires, Hurricane Idalia slam U.S.

MarketWatch.com:

• Intel offers an upbeat update, and its stock is gaining.
• Buying a new car? Don’t expect a bargain, even with more vehicles on dealership lots.
• Hollywood studios should save themselves by ditching Netflix, making their own labor deal, Barry Diller says.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Fani Willis Threatens to Violate Rights of Defendants in Trump RICO Case Because She’s Not Prepared For Trial
• Tempers Flare on Chicago’s Southside Over Plans for Latest Illegal Shelter
• Mass Stabbing Occurs Inside Fulton County Jail, Leaving One Inmate Dead, Same Jail Where Trump Was Booked.
• MUST WATCH: Tucker Carlson Episode 21: Tucker Interviews Barstool Sports Founder Dave Portnoy (VIDEO).
• New York Police to Use Drones to Monitor Backyard Labor Day Parties.
• Peter Doocy Triggers Karine Jean Pierre After Exposing Biden for Going on Vacation While Maui Burned (VIDEO).
• ‘The Voter Fraud No One Is Talking About” – YouTube’s Mr. Reagan on the Greatest Evidence of 2020 Voter Fraud via The Gateway Pundit (VIDEO).
• Mitch McConnell “Medically Clear” to Continue Work After He Freezes Up For the Second Time: Doctor.
• DEEP STATE TACTICS? As with Trump, Bolsonaro is Being Relentlessly Interrogated by the Feds.
• Is the Biden Administration Preparing for Lockdowns? Here’s One Way To Be Prepared.
• JUST IN: Georgia Governor Brian Kemp REJECTS State Lawmaker’s Effort to Remove Fulton County DA Fani Willis (VIDEO).
• James Woods Issues Dire Warning: ‘They Want You in Invisible Chains’.
• WATCH: “I Have Kids to Feed!” – Radical Climate Activists Terrorize DC Blocking Roadways.
• BIDENOMICS: 61% of Americans Living Paycheck to Paycheck.
• Navy Veteran Brutally Beaten While Walking Dog in Philly.
• Bank to Stop Giving Loans to Fossil Fuel Cars.
• Ex-Trainer Exposes Diversity Cult: LAST Thing They Want is ‘Racism to Go Away’.
• Michigan Investigation: Suspicious Spikes in Michigan Voter Registrations Across State Occurred on the Same Day in 2020 Election.

Twitter:

• @TheMilkBarTV - They said the quiet part out loud = DEPOPULATION. (video)
• ProdigalThe3rd - Biden’s Green New Deal wasted trillions to cripple US energy independence, while empowering China: US Trade Rep. Katherine Tai: “China’s dominant position in the world market now in [rare earths] means that it is able to turn on the faucet and turn off the faucet …we remain entirely vulnerable to that leverage.” (video)
• @CarolynRyanTV - GEORGIA BREAKING. Gov. Brian Kemp admits to a Republican voter: "If you give anybody a voting machine, they can hack it". The exchange took place today at the 8th district GOP fish fry in Perry, GA. (video)
• @Risemelbourne - Maui The Insanity Continues. Locals are finding Mysteriously Burnt out vehicles located outside the Fire Zones...Somehow, they're Burnt to a crisp, in Liquid Metal Form and are located in between 𝙐𝙉𝘽𝙐𝙍𝙉𝙏 Houses....Something Very Fishy is going on in Hawaii. (video)
• @wideawake_media - Former vice president at Pfizer, Dr. Mike Yeadon: "When the UN, and Bill Gates, and Klaus Schwab tell you that you won't be travelling, you won't have a private car, there won't be any flights, you won't own anything and you'll be happy, you probably won't live in your own house… When they tell you that, you should assume that they're serious about it." (video)
• @balancealways - US - Senate Committee State Affairs. Q: Have you ever seen any other vaccine put out to the public that has skipped the animal tests? A: No. Remember this. Always. (video)
• @LeadingReport - BREAKING: Out of 524,000 total votes cast in Fulton County, Ga in 2020, 374,128 ballot images went missing, 132,000 ballot signatures were destroyed and 16,000 ballot images were tampered with, according to Voter GA.
• @MJTruthUltra - Trump Statement - They’re Trying to Bring Back Covid Lockdowns - We Will Not Comply! “The left wing lunatics are trying very hard to bring back Covid lockdowns and mandates with their sudden fear-mongering about the new variants that are coming. Gee Whiz, you know what else is coming? An election. (video)
• @WallStreetApes - The Mainstream Media Is NOT SHOWING YOU The HORROR The Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii Fires Victims Went Through. Why? (video)
• @LeftismForU - Just another day in @GavinNewsom's California.... (video)
• @That_isChina - China´s CCP is caught again! More than 7000 Facebook accounts & pages have been removed by Meta after being identified as part of China's influence campaign.
• @zerohedge - "GS PB data show signs of capitulatory selling during the first 3 weeks of August". (graph)
• @charliebilello - Commercial property prices in the US are down 16% from their peak in March 2022. The Office sector has fared the worst, down 31%. (graph)
• @TheRabbitHole84 - I wish this graph was of my stock portfolio but it’s of our aging Congress. Term limits when? (graph)
• @MartyMakary - FDA & CDC pushing the new XBB Covid booster on 300M Americans with zero human outcomes data makes a mockery of the scientific method and our regulatory process. My latest oped..
• @JamesOKeefeIII - BREAKING: Police bodycam footage shows NJ School Board officials calling police on citizens they don’t recognize who look “TRUMPISH!” Police colluded with school officials to scan license plates of all attendees who looked 'different'. POLICE: 'I don't answer to journalists.' (video)
• @DC_Draino - This is NUTS! Trump now beating Biden by 4 points nationwide. That’s a landslide, especially when you consider how many Democrat votes (both real and fake) come out of California and New York. This is why they indicted him 4x.
• @JamesMelville - Here’s the new UK Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps. And look who is lurking behind him…
• @TheGreatSifting - “Every virologist knows that you don’t create a vax when you are in the middle of a pandemic.” (video)
• @matttttt187 - MICHIGAN BREAKING: Michigan authorities suspected there was a massive nationwide voter registration fraud scheme during the 2020 election and were concerned enough to inform the FBI, according to police memos Thousands of 2020 Michigan Voter Registration Forms Have Matching Handwriting, Incorrect Addresses.
• @EvaVlaar - Our new documentary “ZOMBIE LAND” is out now.  The once-great nation of Germany has changed beyond recognition. As a result of mass migration and liberal rule, the streets of Germany are plagued by hard drugs, violence and a new form of apocalyptic homelessness. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 979,870 Reports(+2,329 from prior week) Through August 11th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.0 -2.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.12 USD/Metric Tonne +.12%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.68 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.7 +1.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 30.0 -14.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.4 -.14%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures +.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.