Sunday, October 15, 2023

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Zero Hedge:
 Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 84.0 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.6 +1.8%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 -2.9%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.36%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, October 14, 2023

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MCK), (ACGL), (CB), (EG), (WRB), (MET) and (AJG).

CNBC:

Reuters:

MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, October 13, 2023

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,327.8 +.45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 33,670.3 +.79%
  • NASDAQ 13,407.2 -.18%
  • Russell 2000 1,719.71 -1.5%
  • NYSE FANG+ 7,584.3 -.6% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 30.62 -2.8%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 125.8 -3.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 42,973.3 +1.44%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,740.89 +.28%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,480.22 +.43%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 705.78 +.18%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,271.97 +.98%
  • NYSE Technology 3,680.3 +2.2%
  • Transports 14,699.4 -.73%
  • Utilities 824.56 +3.1%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 86.27 +.13%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.0 +.19%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 190.70 -.15%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.79 +.71%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 452,130 +.39%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 +6.7%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -512 +178
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -39.7 +1.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 449,560 -.14%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,787,495 +2.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +6.1%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.76 +16.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 119.0 +20.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .83 -9.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.1 -3.8%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.07 +6.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.3 +9.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.21% -50.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 26.4+1.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.1 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.5 -3.5%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 12,401.9 +5.2%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  45.8 +9.6
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.706 Trillion -.03%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$1.549 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 40.0 +32.9%
  • AAII % Bears 36.5 -12.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 283.97 +3.4%
  • Crude Oil 87.6/bbl. +5.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 226.0 +3.11%
  • Natural Gas 3.22 -3.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.98 euros/megawatt-hour +42.1%
  • Heating Oil 320.80 +10.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 147.5 (1,000/metric ton) +6.2%
  • Gold 1,928.2 +5.2%
  • Silver 22.69 +5.1%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 400.8 -1.0%
  • Copper 357.14 -1.7%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 367.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
  • CME Lumber  503.5 +2.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,580.7 +1.15%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 347.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +5.15% +29.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.14 +28.1%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 257.29 +183.3%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(32 of 500 reporting) +14.3% +10.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.98 -.03:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 18.1 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.18% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.10 +1.77: Growth Rate +57.6% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 28.5 +.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.2 -8.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.5 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.4 +2.9 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 89.1%(+16.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 10.9%(-16.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 11/1
  • US Dollar Index 106.65 +.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,671.1 +.59%
  • Bitcoin/USD 26,746.2 -4.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.4 -.51%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -43.0 -11.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.62% -15.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.916 Trillion -.04% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.626 Billion -24.8%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.3 +5.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 207.60 +1.49%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.0 +1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.88 -.42%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 82.86 -6.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 184.96 -3.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.68 +109.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.69 -2.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.51%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 73.9 -1.7%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% +10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.2% -10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.7% -60.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.7% -40.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% -3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.42% -27.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34% +3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.5 +.75 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.25 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 76.72 +.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 195.0 -4.8
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 356.0 -27.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 96.91 -3.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 300.95 -8.4%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 236.81 +1.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 185.0 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 912.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .85 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.7% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,209.6 +.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 209,250 +.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.1 +.8%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.80% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 179,300 +.62%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.0% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $107.5M +28.4%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.63/gallon -.12/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,935.0 +.31%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 819.97 -3.75%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +22.2%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 42.9 -3.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 265,449 +.49%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,695,875 +21.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +7.1%
  • Oil Service +7.1%
  • Energy +6.3%
  • Defense +5.0%
  • Telecom +3.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • I-Banking -1.8%
  • AI/Robotics -1.8%
  • Digital Health -3.3%
  • Airlines -4.3%
  • Medical Equipment -5.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • RVMD, VSAT, DG, PGR, CHEF, AVAV, DRS, OFIX, PXD and WFC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)
  • PNC, GPRE, EVRI, AMLX, HRL, BIP, PERI, MEOH, NVT, MBLY, INMD, IDYA, STRL, WCC, SAVA, TARS, BDC, HRMY and SGH
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change