Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks +4.3% 2) Banks +1.7% 3) Energy +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• APGE, AVAV, RGNX, TGT, PHUN, FMS, VIAV, SYRE, HOG, KRYS, CRGY, DVA, NFE, CHH, MGEE, NRG, HPE, IMNM, EGO, BHVN, TS, SAIA, VST, JANX, CCOI, AL and FA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ELAN 2) SOVO 3) AXP 4) TGT 5) OCEA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AISP 2) DAVE 3) APGE 4) DTSS 5) AVAV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANF)/2.83
• (BF/B)/.56
• (CPB)/.77
• (FL)/.32
• (JD)/4.81
• (KFY)/.99
• (THO)/.67
• (UNFI)/-.02
  

After the Close: 

• (VSCO)/2.46
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Feb. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 107K in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• The JOLTS Job Openings for Jan. is estimated to fall to 8850K versus 9026K in Dec.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Dec.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,720,250 barrels versus a +4,199,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,059,750 barrels versus a -2,832,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -331,500 barrels versus a -510,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.0% versus a +.9% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Fed's Beige Book report.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Power/Utilities/Clean Energy Conference, Cowen Health Care Conference, KeyBanc Emerging Tech Summit, RBC Financial Institutions Conference, (TDG) annual meeting and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +20.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 +3.2
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 51.9% of Issues Advancing, 46.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .99 +12.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$174.9M
  
• 129 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 60.3% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.4 -2.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.0 +.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,031.3 -1.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 +22.3%
  
• Vix 14.3 +5.6%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.05 +23.5%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 +2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.04 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.9 +.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 +.33%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.75 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.25 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.1 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.7 -.18%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 unch.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs on US Economic Data, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.4 -2.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68 +32.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.6 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.4 -.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.2 -1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.0 -.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +10.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.29 +25.5% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$127.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 -1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 303.3 -.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 292 +13
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.1 -1.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 211.4 +.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.3 -.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.9 -1.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 123.9 +3.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.21%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.25 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 156.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 826.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 65.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 +.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.6 +2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.3 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.8 +11.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +7.8% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.02 +.05:  Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 20.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +57.3% +.1 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.63 -.28: Growth Rate +30.6% -16.9 percentage points, P/E 31.2 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -37.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.0% -.3 percentage point
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.4% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.72% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 78.9%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 54.1%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +545 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long