Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GBX)/.86

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 215K versus 275K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated to fall to 3.8% versus 3.9% in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to fall to $15.0B versus $19.5B in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking and the (CCL) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.1 -2.0
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 77.0% of Issues Advancing, 20.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 -4.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$282.8M
  
• 199 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 63.5% (+3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.8 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.6 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,951.7 +.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (Greed) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -2.0%
  
• Vix 13.8 -3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -15.2%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.25 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 72.0 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.8 USD/Metric Tonne -2.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.5 +1.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.6 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.39%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Commodity/Technology Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -2.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45 -10.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.3 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.4 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.8 -4.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 +8.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -1.1%

• NYSE Arms .95 +14.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$82.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 -1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 280.80 -.93%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 280 +20
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 -.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 186.4 unch.
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 146.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.4 +.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.9 -1.3%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.6 +.09%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.27%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 782.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.6 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.1 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.3 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +42.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.85 +.20:  Growth Rate +12.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.92 -.49: Growth Rate +29.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .99 -72.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.8% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.3% -.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 61.7%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 52.2%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +670 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +260 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Foods -.8% 2) Airlines -.8% 3) Electric Vehicles -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IRON, COTY, NARI, INTC, ELF and ULTA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JETS 2) ACB 3) LW 4) AG 5) MCHP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ULTA 2) EXPR 3) ELF 4) AGL 5) XPOF
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XBI 3) XLK 4) XLU 5) ARKK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.4% 2) Computer Hardware +2.3% 3) Medical Equipment +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MNMD, SMXT, SMTC, TGS, PLAY, SIG, GCT, DELL, GE, SLCA, BMEA, SPOT, EH, PAAS, NRG, MEOH, PRIM, MODV, BMA, TPC, BMA, GBX, TDW, MAG, OWL, LSPD, PAM, APP, AA, TMDX, TNP, GKOS, WMG, WDC, MU, MXL, CENX, ROIV, SGML, ARCB, FTNT, PAR, SCCO, CLS, OI, VST, CALM, GFI, XLS, ALCC and KSPI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FGEN 2) ACB 3) LEVI 4) PAAS 5) SIL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VNDA 2) SGRP 3) ABUS 4) PLAY 5) SIG

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) AMJ 2) FXR 3) XLI 4) XLY 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume