Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.4 +.06%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .72 -51.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.5 -.14%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.3 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.52 +.67%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 -2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -17.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +44.9%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$11.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.6 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.8 +2.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 241 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 +.74%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 162.2 -.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.0 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.90 +.9%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.7 -.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.07 +.07%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -5.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 685.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.29% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.9 euros/megawatt-hour +4.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.3 +4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -55.7 -2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 +2.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(210 of 500 reporting) +6.3% -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.85 +.47:  Growth Rate +15.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +19.8% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.14 +.85: Growth Rate +25.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 +20.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -21.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.83% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.9% -.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 89.6%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 59.4%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -28 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +146 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.6% 2) Airlines -2.3% 3) Regional Banks -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• STLA, CGBD, PRKS, ARLP, CRGY, TNDM, SNDX, IART and CTRI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JBLU 2) LUMN 3) IVZ 4) STNG 5) GSK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IART 2) SMR 3) BMRC 4) HTZ 5) ARM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KXI 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) XLY 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Restaurants +2.9% 2) Networking +1.6% 3) Gambling +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NIPG, SERV, SAVA, ON, PHG, SHYF, ZIM, MXL, LXEO, OSCR, RVTY, TVTX, BLCO, TSLA, GH, DXCM, CSTL, CAMT, SHAK, MCD, WEX, SN, LIF, AMG, AEHR, COLM, BAH and DECK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CSTM 2) OWL 3) MAT 4) TAL 5) DISH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) COMM 2) ON 3) OIS 4) WEX 5) BABA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) EXI 4) KRE 5) XLK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AGCO)/2.90
• (AMT)/2.56
• (ADM)/1.22
• (AWI)/1.55
• (CVLT)/.73
• (GLW)/.46
• (EXP)/3.55
• (IT)/3.02
• (HUBB)/4.24
• (ITW)/2.47
• (IGT)/.39
• (LDOS)/2.27
• (MRK)/2.16
• (PYPL)/.99
• (PFE)/.46
• (PSX)/1.98 
• (RGEN)/.33
• (SWK)/.84
• (SYY)/1.38
• (XYL)/1.05
  

After the Close: 

• (AMD)/.68
• (ANET)/1.94
• (BXP)/1.73
• (CZR)/.13
• (EA)/.42
• (FSLR)/2.71
• (LSTR)/1.46
• (MTCH)/.48
• (MSFT)/2.93
• (POWL)/2.16
• (PSA)/4.20
• (SWKS)/1.21
• (SBUX)/.93
• (SYK)/2.79
• (WERN)/.20
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to fall to 8000K versus 8140K in May.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July is estimated to fall to 99.7 versus 100.4 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, Texas Services Sector Outlook for July and the API weekly crude oil stock report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.5 +.2
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 38.5% of Issues Advancing, 59.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.48 +51.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$32.0M
  
• 144 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 66.1% (-.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.0 -.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.8 +.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,475.5 +.36%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.5 -18.6%
  
• Vix 17.1 +4.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -11.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Israel Hits Hezbollah for Golan Attack But Eyes Gaza Truce.
• Venezuelans Head to Polls in Test of Commitment to Democracy.
• Asian Stocks Eye Early Gains Into BOJ, Fed Week.
• Riskiest Nations Stand Out as Buffer Against US Election Turmoil.
• Big Tech Earnings Arrive With Nasdaq 100 on Brink of Correction.
• Fed Is About to Nod at a Rate Cut as Job Growth Moderates.
• Apple Intelligence to Miss Initial Launch of Upcoming iOS 18 Overhaul. 
• Traders Fret as 32-Hour Central Banking Spree Hangs Over Markets.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge: 

• Obama Instigated Anti-Biden Coup With '25th Amendment' Threat; Sy Hersh Reports.
• After Failed 1984-Style Censorship-Crusade, Paris Olympics Forced To Apologize For Woke Opening Ceremony.
• The Biden-Harris $40 Billion High Speed Internet Plan Connected Nobody.
• For 25 Minutes, Secret Service In Command Center Never Notified Trump's Detail.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open. 
• US 'Watching Closely' Venezuela Election After Maduro Warned Of 'Bloodbath' If He Loses.
• French Bishops Blast Olympic "Mockery Of Christianity" While MSM Hails "Unprecedented Display Of Inclusivity".
• In Her Own Words: Kamala Harris's Radical Vision For America.
• Hartnett: The World's Most Crowded Trades Are Getting Liquidated.
• "Adult Swim": Four Reasons Why We Have Not Seen The Summer Lows Yet...
• Meteorologists Watching New "Area Of Disturbed Weather" In Atlantic Basin After Lull In Activity.
• Lithium Battery Fire Sparks Traffic Mayhem Across California Desert.
• One Man Found The Infamous "Carpet Trails" In Florida That Lead To Enormous Homeless Encampments Way Back In The Woods.
• Park Fire Burns '5,000 Acres An Hour' In California .
• TME Weekend: Plummeting Revisions And Huge Index Deleveraging.
• Suppressing Silver Prices Has Been Official US Policy Since 1965.
• Will RFK Jr Be Trump's Vaccine Czar?
• Italy Becomes First G-7 Country To Restore Ties With Assad.
• Escobar: China Throws Clout Behind Palestine.
• EU Leverages Frozen Russian Assets For €1.5 Billion Aid Package To Ukraine.
• Governments Must Act Now On Proper Forest Management Or Wildfires Will Get Worse.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Fed Interest-Rate Cut Is Finally Within View.
• Weakness Won’t Deter Hezbollah After Its Soccer-Field Attack. A strong show of U.S. support for Israel would do far more to prevent a larger regional war. 
• How Elon Musk Broke With Biden and the Democrats.
• Pro-Gaza Activists Size Up Harris.
• Posing as ‘Alicia,’ This Man Scammed Hundreds Online. He Was Also a Victim.
• Rural Towns Are Aging, Cash-Strapped and in Desperate Need of Workers.
• Democrats Destroy Democracy to Save It. Party leaders protected Biden from voters, then dumped him for Harris. Is this any way to win?
• Carmakers Chasing an EV Future Get Tripped Up by Choppy Present.
• Luxury Brands Are in a Winner-Takes-All Phase.
• The $600 Billion Digital Ad Business Is Hanging on a Few Words From Google.

CNBC:  

• ‘Deadpool and Wolverine’ box office opens to $205 million.
• How the massive power draw of generative AI is overtaxing our grid.
• Fast-food chains battle for low-income diners with summer value meals.
• Top Wall Street analysts suggest these dividend stocks for enhanced returns.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Fed’s next moves could seal the fate of tech stocks and small-caps.
• Tech giants lead a big earnings week as markets grow cautious. Analysts say this one is a ‘more stable’ AI play.
  

NewsMax:

• Trump: 'Remember, I Sent National Guard to Save Minneapolis'.
• Trump: Forcing Biden Out 'Was a Coup of the Presidency'.
• Rick Santorum: Hezbollah Attack Enabled by Biden, Harris.

Fox News:

• SWAT officer reveals breakdown, painting Secret Service in a worse light
• Jill Biden applauds Olympics ceremony mocking Christians.
• Media gushes over drag queens mocking Christians.
• Audience recoils at Olympics ‘freak show’ after drag queens mock Last Supper.
• Harris' 'blizzard of lies' exposed amid 'whitewashing' record accusations. 
• How Harris will make sure illegal immigrants become legal, according to Warren. 
• Senator on Harris' short list for VP started spy balloon company with ties to Chinese Communist Party. 
• Google omits Trump assassination attempt from key feature. 

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Texas AG Ken Paxton on Kamala Harris’s Incompetence: “Whatever Her Title Was, She Is the Vice President of the United States, We Know That, and She Supported Every Single One of These Policies” (VIDEO). 
• NOT AGAIN: Votes in Two Key Swing States Likely to Take Days to Count Thanks to Dem-Friendly Absentee Ballots.
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren Says Kamala Harris Will ‘Create a Pathway to Citizenship’ For Illegal Aliens (VIDEO). 
• “It Was Spectacular!” – Jill Biden Gushes Over Sick Anti-Christian Olympic Ceremony in Vile Speech (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Says the ‘Natural Extension’ of Kamala Harris’ Political Philosophy is ‘a de Facto Holocaust for All of Humanity’.
• Massive Overflow Crowd for Trump-Vance Rally in St. Cloud, MN (Video).
• COURAGE OVER PROFIT: Tech Company Yanks All Olympic Ads Following Demonic Opening Ceremony Which Mocked Christians and The Last Supper.
• REPORT: Barack Obama Threatened to Use the 25th Amendment to Remove Joe Biden After His “Medical Incident” in Las Vegas and Had Kamala Harris’s Approval to Do So.
• NO SHAME: Olympic Organizers Issue Pathetic ‘Apology’ for Cruelly Mocking Christians as Olympic Boycott Movement Grows.
• Where’s Border Czar Kamala Harris? Three Palestinian Terror Suspects Cross the Southern Border Illegally Before Getting Caught.
• Biden-Harris Led State Department Used Data from Anti-Israel Group To Compile ‘Report Card’ on Israel.
• House GOP Reps. Burgess Owens and Brandon Williams Launch Merit Caucus to Combat DEI in Education: “The Left’s War on Meritocracy Has Gone Too Far”.
• The View’s Joy Behar Says Young White Males Buying 50 Rounds of Ammo Should Be Reported.
• U.S. Bishop Robert Barron’s Powerful Reaction to Perverse Anti-Christian Opening Ceremony at Paris Olympics: “They’re telling us who they are. We should believe them.” (Video)
• Dems Want Congressman Who Tried to Take Away Trump’s Secret Service Protection to Investigate Assassination Attempt.
• “What the Hell Have YOU Done to Question OUR Loyalty to the United States of America?”: J.D. Vance Scorches Kamala Harris at Trump Rally in St. Cloud, MN (Video).
• Kamala Harris Gets Slammed After Her Comments on “Climate Anxiety” and Having Children Resurface (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Expands Anti-US Alliance With Hamas–Fatah Agreement: Analysts.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• A few other things you probably don’t know: illegals in America can get bank loans, mortgages, insurance, driver’s licenses, free healthcare (California & New York) and in-state college tuition. What’s the point of being a citizen if an illegal gets all the benefits, but doesn’t pay taxes or do jury duty?

• @GenFlynn
  

• This is a good reminder, especially given the recent disgusting and sat*nic olympic opening ceremonies. Keep in mind, this below warning was from 1965 (nearly 60 years ago) and things have only gotten worse “progressively” worse. (video)

• @amuse

• BREAKING: More details behind the bloodless coup our nation just experienced from Seymour Hersh...

• @LauraLoomer

• REVEALED: Kamala Harris's Husband's Firm Reps Chinese Communist Party-Owned Corporates, Employs Ex-CCP Officials.
• EXPOSED: SUPPORT FOR KAMALA HARRIS ON @tiktok_us AND INSTAGRAM IS FAKE AND PAID FOR. The social media support for Kamala Harris is paid for astroturfing. (video)

• @CharlieKirk11

• The “Kamala-mentum” hype is fake. Nationally zero bump for Kamala. 5/8 swing states zero bump.
• One of the most FIRE clips of JD Vance yet. This is how you respond when the left smears you. Punch back twice as hard. Watch. (video)

• @nicksortor

• This is literally just the OVERFLOW CROWD of people that couldn’t get in to the Minnesota Trump Rally tonight. This is INSANE. No Republican Presidential candidate has won MN in decades. (video)
• President Trump is being welcomed by a MASSIVE crowd in Minnesota, which is supposed to be DEEP BLUE, for his rally tonight. (video)
• Pete Buttigieg just ADMITTED that they were “ALL AWARE” of Biden’s cognitive decline for YEARS. But went ahead and lied to Americans anyway. Kamala Harris is directly responsible for the biggest coverup in modern U.S. history. (video)

• @DrEliDavid

• @Olympics forbids Israeli team to wear a yellow ribbon calling for the release of hostages, but allows Palestinian team to wear a shirt depicting Israel dropping bombs on children. (pic)
  

• @MichelleRM68

• REMINDER!!! Per Dominion's own logs, in April 2021, they CONFIRMED that Maricopa County officials Brian Ramirez and Kristi Passarelli deleted the official results of the 2020 election!!! (video)

• @kylenabecker
  

• You don't need to wait until November to know that the Democrats are cheating in the 2024 election. They are already cheating. Right now. Through campaign finance fraud. This will blow your mind. (video)
  

• @libsoftiktok

• ChatGPT says there’s no verified information or evidence that Trump was almost assassinated and there have been no attempts. They’re erasing history in real time. (pic)
  

• @SteveLovesAmmo
  

• Donald Trump just dropped this savage video about Failed Border Czar Kamala Harris!!!  (video)
  

• @EndWokeness 

• The media is now hyping Kamala Harris as the greatest thing since sliced bread. But what did they think of her before? Roll the tape… (video)
• 500 communists are currently marching through Philadelphia. 0 media outrage. (video)
  

• @InsightGL

• -All indications #China behind escalation in #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah conflict -Behind this facade of peace is Great Game. China Explosive situation in ME -Keeps West away from Ukraine & SCS -Makes IMEC distant dream -Keeps BRI viable -Safeguards Egypt & Suez Canal investments.

• @WallStreetSilv

• Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen says their "transition to a lower carbon global economy" will "require no less than $3 trillion" each year. These people are economically iIIiterate. (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes
  

• This Candace Owens Clip Perfectly Explains The Media Brainwashing Taking Place In America Today. It’s based on a CIA experiment. “CIA, back in the day, did this experiment where they placed 18 people in a room. 17 of those people were actually CIA agents, and one of them was just an unwitting member of the public:” Watch this video. It will make what’s taken place today make so much more sense. (video)
• Get The Word Out, ActBlue Is A Democrat Money Laundering Enterprise. People are now making videos saying check the donation records and request the money back that has been fraudulently donated under your name by the DNC. Make them ‘Go Broke’ for the fraud they’ve committed. (video)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: Nicolas Maduro has now activated the Venezuelan military to block people from voting because the turnout for the opposition is HISTORIC. Please pray for the people of Venezuela. (video)
• BREAKING: Massive election fraud is underway in Venezuela. Maduro's socialist government is currently blocking voters from voting and observers from watching them count. (video)
• Kamala Harris is holding a rally in deep blue Philadelphia, and only 68 people showed up. Think about that the next time they come out with another fake poll. (video)

• @mazemoore

• Never forget what they did in 2020 or how Kamala Harris supported it. Violence and destruction to tear a country apart in order to win an election. (video)

• @dom_lucre

• BREAKING: Rayssa Leal, a Catholic skater won a Bronze Medal at the Paris World Olympics and she allegedly was told she wasn’t allowed to praise Jesus Christ. Leal responded by saying 'Jesus is the way, the truth and the life' in sign language to protest. (video)

• @w_terrence

• Here is a clip of Kamala Harris identifying as Indian/ south Asian and not black! (video)

• @ConceptualJames
  

• VIDEO: Fidel Castro says "my idea is Democracy....I am not a Communist" and "all those human rights we *could* establish..." in a 1959 interview. Sound familiar? (video)
  

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,012,894 Reports(+1,222 from prior report) Through June 28th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.50 -2.5 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 64.0 -4.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.66%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.1 +3.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 -3.0%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.45%.
• S&P 500 futures +.44%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.62%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.