Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BABA)/15.00
• (DE)/5.68
• (JD)/6.24
• (SPTN)/.56
• (TPR)/.88
• (WMT)/.65
  

After the Close: 

• (ALC)/.73
• (AMAT)/2.03
• (COHR)/.60
• (HRB)/1.74
• (DDS)/1.97
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Aug. is estimated to rise to -6.0 versus -6.6 in July.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.8% gain in June.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for Aug. is estimated to fall to 5.2 versus 13.9 in July.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 235K versus 233K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1870K versus 1875K prior.
• The Import Price Index MoM for July is estimated to fall -.1% versus unch. in June.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in June. 
• The Export Price Index MoM for July is estimated unch. versus a -.5% decline in June.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.6% gain in June.
• Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to fall to 78.5% versus 78.8% in June.
• Manufacturing Production for July is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in May.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to 43.0 versus 42.0 in July.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking, Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow update, Fed's weekly Balance Sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Aug., (MOD) annual meeting and the (IDXX) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 +.6
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 58.8% of Issues Advancing, 38.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 +21.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$74.6M
  
• 78 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 52.9% (-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 +3
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.0 +14.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 223.2 -.23%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,820.6 -.01%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (FEAR) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.4 -35.9%
  
• Vix 16.5 -8.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -19.8%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• When it's fiction you understand. Yet you refuse to see it when it's the reality you're living in. Wild. 
• The Woke Stasi. (video)
• Conversation with @realDonaldTrump with topic timestamps. (audio)
  

• @ImMeme0

• FLASHBACK: Kamala Harris cast the decisive vote to strengthen tax enforcement on gratuities in the hospitality industry, resulting in the IRS implementing a tip reporting program. Now, she champions a "No Tax on Tips" initiative, echoing a proposal originally made by President Trump during his campaign. (pic)
• The man speaks with the common sense that resonates with most of us. (video)

• @The_Real_Fly

• MARXIST EU BUREAUCRACY SENDS LETTERS TO ELON MUSK DEMANDING DONALD TRUMP BE CENSORED ON X *** (letter)

• @C-Herridge
  

• BREAKING: Leaked government memo confirms whistleblowers were targeted by Border Agency after exposing federal DNA Collection law was not followed for immigration violations. Homeland Security whistleblowers claim American deaths “were preventable.”

• @WallStreetSilv

• So they admit that the voting machines can be hacked, but they claim it can't be fixed? (pic)
  

• @JamesOKeefeIII

• Disney Funds Puberty Blockers for Children: Insider Document Reveals Shocking Policy. JUST IN: O'Keefe Media Group uncovers internal documents from a Disney insider, exposing @Disney's healthcare plans that provide sex change treatments for employees' children. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• J6 PRAYING GRANDMA NEEDS YOUR HELP AFTER BEING HIT WITH THE LARGEST MISDEMEANOR FINE IN AMERICAN HISTORY OF $103,000 FOR SIMPLY PRAYING IN THE CAPITOL!!
• Can someone please send this to all of the big evangelical leaders? This needs to receive mass condemnation. Kamala Harris’s campaign has created an “Evangelicals for Harris” coalition that revolves around kicking white Christians out of the church, “deconstructing white Jesus”, and telling White Christians they aren’t allowed to speak. (pic)
  

• @JackPosobiec
  

• JD Vance just rope-a-doped Dana Bash. Incredible. CNN aint built for this. (video)

• @nicksortor

• As usual, people at the Kamala Harris rally began leaving in DROVES as soon as she took the stage. Almost like they didn’t actually come to hear her speak or something.
• NEW: Delta Airlines has just BARRED the use of the term “ladies and gentleman” from their gate announcements, as it may “offend” some patrons. Apparently Delta wants to Bud Light themselves.

• @libsoftiktok

• WOW. Gavin Newsom's California Finance Department is opposing a CA bill that would make buying children for s*x a felony because of the "potential costs" that the state would have to "deal with." California won't protect children from s*x trafficking because it's "too expensive." UNBELIEVABLE. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Smartmatic Electronic Voting Machine President indicted for Bribery & Fraud. Here’s Bill Gates & Smartmatic ready to “improve elections around the world”. Rapid change is happening in the world & it’s because stolen elections. Venezuelas election used Smartmatic Election Software. (pic)

• @wideawake_media

• If Bill Gates is allowed to have his way, soon absolutely everything we consume―from vegetables, to dairy, to meat―will contain mRNA, whether we like it or not. (video)
• "It's neo-feudalism." Dutch political commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek (
  @EvaVlaar) exposes the WEF's plan to impose a personal carbon allowance, connected to digital ID, using the "climate crisis" as a pretext. (video)
• "If you can control energy, you can control human beings." A perfect one minute summary of the underlying agenda beneath the "human-induced climate change" narrative. "Back in 1993, we identified [global warming] as the mother of all environmental scare tactics... Groups on the left understood that if you can control energy, you can control human beings." (video)
  

• @RWMaloneMD
  

• The UK is under a totalitarian regime; it has fallen to tyranny under PM Keir Starmer. One former Member of Parliament told me this morning that close to 1000 arrests have been made for sharing online posts in the last week. The same MP advised me that even a stopover through Heathrow isn't safe for Americans who have spoken out about immigration issues.

• @TheRabbitHole84

• The legacy media doesn’t have time to report meaningfully because they are busy generating fake oppression narratives. (graphs)

• @akafacehots

• Chinese immigrants have seen people like Kamala before.. they’re experts when it comes to communism. That’s why they support Trump. (video)

• @toobaffled
  

• Vermont’s Supreme Court has ruled that schools in the state can begin vaccinating children without the knowledge or consent of their parents. The state’s high court ruled that school officials will get the final say on vaccination and can vaccinate kids against their parents’s wishes. Families will no longer be able to sue their children’s schools over forced vaccination following the ruling.

• @Real_RobN

• Tucker Carlson: ‘They rigged the election’ and wiped their crimes clean ‘in front of all of us and nobody did anything about it.’ (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,013,375 Reports(+481 from prior report) Through August 2nd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.04 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 45.2 +2.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Diminished Yen Carry Trade Unwind Fears, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -8.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .86 +1.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 44.0 +9.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.46 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.79 +.11%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.5 -5.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 132.0 +14.0
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -14.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.39 +36.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$224.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.9 -2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 320.10 +1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 261 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.0 +.02%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 183.0 +.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.3 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.4 -.8%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 143.9 +5.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.17%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -14.75 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 64.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.18% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.31%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.45%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.1 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.1 -6.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.9 -5.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(456 of 500 reporting) +9.2% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.47 n/a:  Growth Rate +15.9% n/a, P/E 20.4 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.74% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 342.22 n/a: Growth Rate +27.6% n/a, P/E 31.7 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .61 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -9.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.91% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.8% -1.0 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 51.2%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 43.3%(-3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +142 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.1% 2) Energy -1.0% 3) Insurance -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WES, BAX, NFE, OEC, SRAD, GMED, CMG, KGS, INOD, TME and VSAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SBUX 2) ALK 3) NRG 4) HD 5) HA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TME 2) ICU 3) RILY 4) VRPX 5) CING
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XRT 2) XOP 3) ARKK 4) IAT 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.7% 2) Semis +4.0% 3) Computer Hardware +3.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SBUX, SPRY, PACS, PLSE, DAR, LOAR, VRNA, HRTG, UPST, W, SE, SAVA, NYCB, FTRE, AGRO, PGY, ONON, U, LQDA, CVNA, HG, ELAN, ASND, ATXS, TLN, EL, PSFE, VCYT, HROW, ITOS, SATS, SMCI, SLNO, NKE, ACIC, RKT, FOUR, DUOL, MARA, HEAR, RBLX, DELL, IRTC, IOT, EVH, SONY, WOLF, AU, INTC, GRPN, ELF, ADMA, CELH, SMFG, TEAM, CRL, ACVA, TEAM, MODG, DOCN, PLTR, MTUS, MEOH, SKWD, PINS, HOG, DKNG, PAX and ADNT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PAYO 2) ALK 3) LQDA 4) SBUX 5) DISH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CXAI 2) LWAY 3) PEN 4) HUYA 5) PACS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) CLK 5) XBI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume