Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Diminished War-Induced Inflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.5 -2.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.2 +2.8% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 +4.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 -3.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 142.2 -2.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.8 -5.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -2.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.5 +2.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 62.2 -3.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(309 of 500 reporting) +58.7% +1.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.53 +4.26:  Growth Rate +30.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.15% +14.0 basis  points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +138.3% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 926.57 +1.94: Growth Rate +78.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.7 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 42.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.74 +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 57.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.5% +1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +6.2% +120.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.68% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 56.3% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 41.8%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -420 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -6 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -2.0% 2) Energy -1.6% 3) Gambling -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PBF, XPEV, MPWR, DORM, EBAY, INDV, GLUE, AZN, MANE, FICO, KRYS, TGTX, PLOW, GME and SRAD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FISV 2) OWL 3) NN 4) RSI 5) XE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) YUM 3) CRCL 4) SG 5) BCBP

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) FDN 3) XLB 4) KRE 5) ICLN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Space +4.6% 2) Airlines +4.4% 3) AI Innovation +3.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATKR, ALOY, AXTI, CRWV, NBIS, BIOA, ALM, PGY, FSLR, VCX, LIFE, DQ, CNMD, FTK, PRCH, LMND, BOW, CORZ, CCXI, CDNA, MMYT, SHAZ, RDDT, VRT, LIND, KC, SNDK, ORCL, TSEM, LBRX, SEI, TNET, SBH, CNH, FERG, CSTL, WULF, XE, GDDY, BBNX, BE, OWL, BA, PSN, ARES, MCS, TMDX, FTAI, APEI, RBLX, META, ELVN, MHK, IMAX, MLKN, ATEC, SUPN, ALNY, U, CRI, ESTC, OMCL, TBBK, VSAT, MSFT, GLAS, AAUC, SUPN, MYE, GOOG, GLAS, OMCL, SPSC, ETN, MYE, TPG, SUPN, SHIP, AMZN, CG, BABA, OCTV, POWL, PAX, PHIN, TNDM, OTF, EAT, GNRC, CMCO, AMSF, PZZA, BVS, KSPI, JACK, ASTE, DXCM, NN, MNPR, CNK and STVN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VSAT 2) FISV 3) AZN 4) INO 5) SRAD 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ATKR 2) GIFT 3) NWL 4) MMYT 5) MHK

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLC 3) XLF 4) IGV 5) XLI

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ADM)/1.49
• (APTV)/1.42
• (BNTX)/-2.10
• (CAT)/6.22
• (CIFR)/-.24
• (CMI)/7.21
• (DUK)/1.30
• (DD)/1.76
• (ENR)/.83
• (IT)/3.76
• (GWW)/11.30
• (IDXX)/3.94
• (IPGP)/.37
• (KMB)/2.01
• (LDOS)/2.91
• (MCD)/3.32
• (MRK)/-.27
• (NRG)/1.69
• (PFE)/.68
• (RYTM)/-.81
• (ROK)/3.38
• (SPOT)/2.76
• (SYY)/1.51
• (TSEM)/.76
• (TDG)/10.30
• (WAT)/3.01 
• (EA)/.82
• (EOG)/4.97
• (EXPD)/1.69 

After the Close: 

• (AMD)/1.62
• (AMGN)/5.62
• (ANET)/.89
• (ALAB)/.69
• (BKNG)/2.43
• (DVA)/3.88
• (DVN)/1.40
• (EMR)/1.68
• (GILD)/-7.26
• (HNGE)/.61
• (J)/1.83
• (LSCC)/.44
• (MTCH)/.65
• (MOS)/.12
• (PINS)/.36
• (PRU)/3.52
• (RRR)/.51
• (SPCX)/-.23
• (TOST)/.32
• (WYNN)//.99 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for June is estimated at -$73.0B versus -$77.6B in May.
• Imports MoM for June is estimated to fall -1.9% versus a +3.3% gain in May.
• Exports MoM for June is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a -3.2% decline in May. 

10:00 am EST 

• Factory Orders for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -1.3% decline in May.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.9% gain in May.
• JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to fall to 7470K versus 7594K in May.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, (CMC) investor day and the UBS Cleanpower Expo could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.9 +7.3
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 68.8% of Issues Advancing, 29.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.12 +.9%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$19.3M
  
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 59.7% (+3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.2 +3.6

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 10.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 13.0% +6.0 percentage points
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 10.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 2.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 21.0% -5.0 percentage points
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31st 55.0% +17.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.4 +.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 55.0 +5.0 points
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 441.0 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 266.9 +1.2%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 145.5 +1.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 7.7 -37.8%
• Vix 15.6% -2.6%
• Total Put/Call .75 -20.2%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Donald Trump said he’s holding off from new strikes on Iran, after Tehran and other Middle Eastern powers told him they’re working on an agreement that might quickly reopen Hormuz. 
• The US president said that the Saudi crown prince told him over the weekend that he preferred continued talks to the planned strikes. 
• The US Treasury has limited liquid resources to support further coordinated currency intervention alongside Japan, though its firepower could be expanded if officials resort to more extraordinary measures, according to JPMorgan. 
• France’s government tightened rules on foreign investment in key French companies, including those listed abroad, citing national security reasons at a time of geopolitical tensions.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded South Korean stocks to overweight, saying the recent “leverage washout” offers investors a better entry point into the artificial intelligence trade and industrial super-cycle theme.
• AstraZeneca has explored an acquisition of Bristol Myers in a megadeal that would create one of the world’s largest drugmakers, according to people familiar with the matter.
• The rollout of powerful new tools is inspiring a generation of day traders who are trying to crack Wall Street’s secret code and create automated money machines. Bloomberg's
  @song_eleanor explains.  
• In trying to starve the world of rare-earth magnets, China is cultivating a global industry that will make them more abundant than ever. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Here's what's moving markets today.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @Zerohedge 

• Trump Says "Perimeters Of A Deal Reached" With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince. 
• @POTUS: "I was asked to by Saudi Arabia, by UAE, and by Qatar, and by Iran. We were all set to go, just about at this time right now, and it would've been a massive attack... The reason they asked [to call it off] is they think there's a deal. There's a deal on Hormuz and then there will be a deal on the denuclearization of Iran... So, we're holding it. We'll just see." (video)
• 'Defend Israel Or The Homeland': Top US General Issues Stark Warning To Pentagon Brass. 
• UK Navy: Tanker Reports Hearing Blast Near Oman’s Khasab Aug. 2. 
• *BESSENT: WON'T HESITATE TO CONDUCT MORE YEN JOINT INTERVENTION.
• Is Anybody Ever Going To Say, "I'm Sorry"?.
• Crushing Short Squeeze Sparks Biggest Buying On Goldman's Prime Desk Since Nov '20.   
• We’re looking into buying Truth Social’s $100,000-a-month API and give the data away for free on X. Ending political corruption has been our mission, time to continue. We will also give our Pilots access to this info too, and create a portfolio based just off this $100k API Access. 
• Bill Gates Held A Top Secret 'Q' Clearance For Seven Years - And The DOE Won't Say Why.
• Crack Pipes, Get Yer' Crack Pipes! Free Crack Pipes!: California Taxpayers Fund Drug Paraphernalia.
• The memorandum that was signed is the result of the collective wisdom of Shura Council's members, and all members are in sympathy with it. I believe this memorandum will be the center of gravity of our foreign relations in the future. We must strive to compel the enemy to remain committed to what it has signed. The security of the country, the region, and our allies will be enhanced by this memorandum.
• Scott Galloway is a perfect example of perhaps the most pernicious people in society: the stupid-smart person. Educated beyond his intelligence. Smart enough vocabulary to justify his ego and smugness, but too stupid to understand basic realities of communists... -@spencerpratt.  
• IRAN SAYS IT'S IN TALKS WITH OMAN ON A NEW ROUTE IN HORMUZ: TV.
• From Influence Peddler To Starving Artist: Hunter Biden Claims Family Is Broke In Defaulting On $17 Million Bill.
• "Nothing Is 100%": CZ Warns Bitcoin Holders After $89 Million Coldcard Wallet Exploit.
• Spain's Immigration Crisis: Ceuta & The Collapse Of Sánchez's Pro-Migration Experiment.  
• Water-System Hacks Hit 7 States This Week, FBI Warns, As Trump Shoots Down Iran Theory.
• UK High Court Moves To Ban Display Of English And British Flags.
• A Brain That Can Swap Bodies: Google DeepMind Aims To Be The 'Android' Of Robotics.
• McGlinchey: Trump's Damage To US Diplomacy Could Last A Generation.
• New Jersey Offers Taxpayer-Funded Legal Services To Noncitizens Improperly Registered To Vote.
• $88 million would make this one of the biggest heists in U.S. history. At one point is the FBI et al on the case to bust these scumbags and return the btc? The company is Canadian tho so not sure that works.
• "Shades Of 2000": Second-Biggest De-Grossing Ever, A $400 Billion Hyperscaler Debt-Wave, & Kospi's Wildest Month Since Lehman.      

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Markets exhale as Trump steps back, OPEC+ steps up. 
• Stock futures rise as investors look ahead to jobs report, key earnings: Live updates.  
• OPEC agrees September oil hike, completing rollback of voluntary cuts.
• AMD and Sandisk are two of the big chip stocks with earnings momentum in the new week.

• @MarioNawful

• To give you an idea how close we are to a global war: - Trump wants Syria to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon. - Reports that Ukraine may help the U.S. blockade Iran. - Talk of Saudi invading Yemen to gain control of Bab-El-Mandeb from the Houthis. - 2 ships in Egypt struck. Iran striking the Gulf pre-emptively. The U.S. preparing for a possible resumption of the war. - China and Russia HEAVILY supporting Iran. - Ukraine war escalating, as Russia warns it may strike NATO. - China and Japan flexing in the South and East China sea.s - North Korea wants to build and deploy nuclear-powered submarines.

• @pati_marins64

• Phone Call: Saudis Issue Ultimatum to Trump on Behalf of GCC. Amid strong rumors that Netanyahu had already agreed with Trump to resume bombings against Iran, Gulf countries like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were already working behind the scenes. Qatar, in particular, had been warning about the imminent risks to its massive infrastructure and natural gas exports. This, however, was not enough to dissuade Trump, who was moving forward with his plan, especially since the two major American natural gas exporting companies are benefiting from the scenario and were donors to Trump's campaign. The UAE had also been warning about the risks to its facilities, but with little progress. In the last 72 hours, these countries informed Washington that local intelligence reports confirmed Iran had already mapped oil fields, refineries, and power plants across all GCC members for an immediate counter-attack should the US initiate the bombings, but also to no avail. It was Mohammed bin Salman who aligned the GCC's position.

• @HormuzReport

• BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's new claim Iran agreed to end its nuclear program and open the Strait of Hormuz as a "complete lie," saying it is a "desperate attempt to manipulate the market," per Iranian military officials to Mehr News. Iran adds that it has not requested any halt to the planned attacks, and that it was purely Trump who chose to stop them with false claims of a deal.

• @Overston_News

• RFK Jr. EXPLODES on Dana Bash: “You are saying NONSENSE!” Kennedy refused to let Bash move on after she declared that the “COVID vaccine worked.” Kennedy then challenged Bash to cite a single study showing that the vaccine did more good than harm for children. She never named one. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter

• AI-exposed companies are delivering unprecedented earnings. S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates by an average of +27% so far in Q2 2026, on track for the strongest quarter in decades. Nasdaq 100 firms are exceeding expectations by more than double that margin, at +55%. The Bloomberg AI Value Chain index is beating expectations by an even larger amount, at +71%. This index includes chipmakers, cloud and data center operators, memory and hardware suppliers, networking equipment makers, and power infrastructure companies supporting AI. The AI boom is backed by extraordinary earnings results. (graph)

• @LaraLogan

• They said there was no evidence - it was not true. And they got away with stealing an election in the most powerful nation on earth. If it happens again, they are unlikely to ever let go of power. If that reality does not wake you up…. (video)
• These polls are an information warfare shaping operation to prepare the ground for a stolen election. Complete nonsense. No surprise that the network that called Arizona for Biden in the stolen 2020 election is now assisting the lie that Baby Beto aka little Satan is anywhere close to electable in Texas. This is propaganda at its finest - but with the purpose of setting the stage so people will go along with the steal. (video) 
• Like I said, a shaping operation to prep the ground for a stolen election. They almost pulled it off with fake Beto - now they are trying again with Baby Beto aka little satan. Texas be warned - get off your butts and vote so they cannot get away with the steal. 

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: This HERO is being praised nationwide after he got out to fire his gun at the active shooter in Twin Falls, Idaho, catching the criminal OFF GUARD and likely saving lives. FEARLESS PATRIOT. That American deserves a medal! (video)

• @GuntherEagleman

• NIH IS FINALLY BEING FIXED: Trump’s new NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya just laid out the reforms we’ve been waiting for: Permanent ban on gain-of-function research. Brand new pandemic playbook (no more lockdowns, school closures, or mandates). Dedicated vaccine injury research center, so injured Americans stop getting gaslit. Clear message: America will NEVER again fund research that risks catastrophic human harm. This is what accountability looks like.

• @spectatorindex

• Prices, since start of the year. Rice: +45% Cotton: +27% Wheat: +25% Wool: +21% Rubber: +20% Cheese: +16% Tea: +15% Sunflower oil: +15% Palm oil: +15% Lumber: +14% Soybeans: +13%.

• @5149jamesLi

• Marco Rubio: If you criticize Israel, you will not be granted a visa for the United States. Nothing on if people criticize the U.S. tho… (video)

• @naomirwolf

• There are no words. My career and reputation and any place I might ever have had in posterity after a 40 year career was destroyed because I warned women about this damage to their ovaries which Dr Fauci knew was true. (video)

• @Savsays

• EXPOSED: The state of TEXAS is allowing illegals to use foreign IDs to access American citizenship paperwork for their kids & advertising it IN SPANISH on our official government websites. The most common forms of acceptable IDs include: -El Salvadoran consular documents. -Honduran consular documents. -Mexican voter registration cards. After Texas Health and Human Services was originally exposed by Rep. @brianeharrison, the state took the information down from their website, but we found out it’s all still up on different “texas. gov” links! (video)

• @DanBilzerian

• Spain condemns Israel. -Netanyahu says “Spain will pay the ultimate price.” -Spain is flooded with thousands of Moroccan migrants. -Israel congratulates Morocco for the first time ever on social media. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Entire NEIGHBORHOODS are engulfed in flames in Spokane, Washington as Gov. Bob Ferguson (D) stands by and watches Over *5,000* homes are about to burn, and not NEARLY enough is being done. STOP COPYING NEWSOM. REQUEST FEDERAL SUPPORT NOW! (video)

• @AwakenOutlaw

• Shocker! (not). The fire currently ravaging Spokane, WA, was started in a homeless encampment. With strong public support (Proposition 1 approved by 75% of voters), Conservative interests sought to address the problem by enacting 'camping restrictions' in and around the city to gain control over encampments and protect citizens. Still, the state Supreme Court later overruled them in a 6-2 decision in 2024. This fire is therefore a direct result of letting liberals run things. Their policies have consequences, something we're all watching play out while the city burns.

• @GeneralMCNews

• BREAKING: Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin says more than 900,000 immigrants have been granted legal status over the past 12 months.

• @SpencerPratt

• Fire is a weapon of mass destruction. We need to treat it like the national security threat it is. In the last admin, "ologists" hijacked billions intended for fire management & laundered it to activist eco-NGOs. 60% of fire units are understaffed *right now*.

•  @BoLoudon

• @AnaKasparian just ADMITTED conservatives were RIGHT about Dr. Fauci, and she now wants Dr. Fauci "PROSECUTED." "When the pandemic began, I had too much trust in our institutions. I have now switched over to having ZERO trust..." Dr. Fauci belongs behind bars. (video)

• @Megatron_ron

• The Trump administration has begun banning entry to political influencers from Europe who are critical of Israel Nationalist influencer Keith Woods has been barred entry into the United States by the Trump Administration due to his political activities. Woods posted this notice from the US denying him entry. Woods also says the US has denied other European nationalists entry to the US due to the Admin's policy of barring visas from those critical of Israel. (pic)

• @Liz_Churchill10

• The unvaccinated were the most hated people on Earth. They lost their jobs. Friends and families disowned them. They were reported and arrested. Society treated them like lepers…and 7 years later…it turns out that they were right about everything…

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.15 USD/Metric Tonne -1.80%.
• Crude Oil 80.54/bbl. -4.9%
• Gold 4,110.10 USD/t oz. +.08% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.35 +.17%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.53 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.2 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.70% -4.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.99% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.7%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.69%.
• S&P 500 futures +.47%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.76%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.