Monday, August 03, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @TheTranscript
  • @WallStEngine
  • CITADEL SECURITIES: BULL MARKET DRIVERS REMAIN “FIRMLY INTACT”. Scott Rubner says July’s tech selloff and retreat by retail investors helped unwind the market’s speculative excesses. Retail posted its largest week of stock selling since 2022, while assets in leveraged ETFs fell 28% to $154 billion and equity funding costs dropped below their one-year average. He now sees the market shifting away from flows and positioning toward earnings, corporate demand and the macro backdrop.
  • PALANTIR $PLTR Q2'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.94B (Est. $1.8B) ; +93% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.41 (Est. $0.35). US Commercial Revenue: $764M; +149% YoY. Adj. Op Inc: $1.19B (Est. $1.06B). Q3 2026 Guide: Revenue: $2.160B-$2.164B (Est. $2B). Adj. Op Inc: $1.29B-$1.30B (Est. $1.14B). Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue: $8.15B-$8.16B (Est. $7.69B. US Comm Revenue: >$3.4B; 134%+ YoY. Adj. Op Inc: $4.89B-$4.90B (Est. $4.46B). Adj. FCF: $4.5B-$4.7B (Est. $4.27B)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 -1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
  • Crude Oil 81.0/bbl. +.8% 
  • Gold 4,108.0 USD/t oz. +.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.34 +.07%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.49 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.0 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.68% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% -3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.29%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and defense shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Diminished War-Induced Inflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.5 -2.4%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.2 +2.8% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 +4.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 -3.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 142.2 -2.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 58.8 -5.3% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -2.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.5 +2.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 62.2 -3.8
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +.6
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(309 of 500 reporting) +58.7% +1.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.53 +4.26:  Growth Rate +30.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.15% +14.0 basis  points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +138.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 926.57 +1.94: Growth Rate +78.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.7 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 42.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.74 +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 57.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.5% +1.4 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +6.2% +120.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.68% -5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 56.3% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 41.8%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -420 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -6 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Pharma -2.0% 2) Energy -1.6% 3) Gambling -1.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PBF, XPEV, MPWR, DORM, EBAY, INDV, GLUE, AZN, MANE, FICO, KRYS, TGTX, PLOW, GME and SRAD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FISV 2) OWL 3) NN 4) RSI 5) XE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GME 2) YUM 3) CRCL 4) SG 5) BCBP
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) FDN 3) XLB 4) KRE 5) ICLN

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +2.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Space +4.6% 2) Airlines +4.4% 3) AI Innovation +3.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ATKR, ALOY, AXTI, CRWV, NBIS, BIOA, ALM, PGY, FSLR, VCX, LIFE, DQ, CNMD, FTK, PRCH, LMND, BOW, CORZ, CCXI, CDNA, MMYT, SHAZ, RDDT, VRT, LIND, KC, SNDK, ORCL, TSEM, LBRX, SEI, TNET, SBH, CNH, FERG, CSTL, WULF, XE, GDDY, BBNX, BE, OWL, BA, PSN, ARES, MCS, TMDX, FTAI, APEI, RBLX, META, ELVN, MHK, IMAX, MLKN, ATEC, SUPN, ALNY, U, CRI, ESTC, OMCL, TBBK, VSAT, MSFT, GLAS, AAUC, SUPN, MYE, GOOG, GLAS, OMCL, SPSC, ETN, MYE, TPG, SUPN, SHIP, AMZN, CG, BABA, OCTV, POWL, PAX, PHIN, TNDM, OTF, EAT, GNRC, CMCO, AMSF, PZZA, BVS, KSPI, JACK, ASTE, DXCM, NN, MNPR, CNK and STVN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VSAT 2) FISV 3) AZN 4) INO 5) SRAD 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ATKR 2) GIFT 3) NWL 4) MMYT 5) MHK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLC 3) XLF 4) IGV 5) XLI
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ADM)/1.49
  • (APTV)/1.42
  • (BNTX)/-2.10
  • (CAT)/6.22
  • (CIFR)/-.24
  • (CMI)/7.21
  • (DUK)/1.30
  • (DD)/1.76
  • (ENR)/.83
  • (IT)/3.76
  • (GWW)/11.30
  • (IDXX)/3.94
  • (IPGP)/.37
  • (KMB)/2.01
  • (LDOS)/2.91
  • (MCD)/3.32
  • (MRK)/-.27
  • (NRG)/1.69
  • (PFE)/.68
  • (RYTM)/-.81
  • (ROK)/3.38
  • (SPOT)/2.76
  • (SYY)/1.51
  • (TSEM)/.76
  • (TDG)/10.30
  • (WAT)/3.01 
  • (EA)/.82
  • (EOG)/4.97
  • (EXPD)/1.69 
After the Close: 
  • (AMD)/1.62
  • (AMGN)/5.62
  • (ANET)/.89
  • (ALAB)/.69
  • (BKNG)/2.43
  • (DVA)/3.88
  • (DVN)/1.40
  • (EMR)/1.68
  • (GILD)/-7.26
  • (HNGE)/.61
  • (J)/1.83
  • (LSCC)/.44
  • (MTCH)/.65
  • (MOS)/.12
  • (PINS)/.36
  • (PRU)/3.52
  • (RRR)/.51
  • (SPCX)/-.23
  • (TOST)/.32
  • (WYNN)//.99 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for June is estimated at -$73.0B versus -$77.6B in May.
  • Imports MoM for June is estimated to fall -1.9% versus a +3.3% gain in May.
  • Exports MoM for June is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a -3.2% decline in May

10:00 am EST 

  • Factory Orders for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -1.3% decline in May.
  • Factory Orders Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.9% gain in May.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to fall to 7470K versus 7594K in May.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for June

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, (CMC) investor day and the UBS Cleanpower Expo could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -4.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.9 +7.3
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 68.8% of Issues Advancing, 29.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.12 +.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$19.3M
  • 82 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 59.7% (+3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.2 +3.6
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 10.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 13.0% +6.0 percentage points
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 10.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 2.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 21.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31st 55.0% +17.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.4 +.3%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 55.0 +5.0 points
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 441.0 -12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 266.9 +1.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 145.5 +1.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.7 -37.8%
  • Vix 15.6% -2.6%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -20.2%