Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -.60% 2) Disk Drives -.51% 3) Restaurants -.45%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- RXN, STON, FN, GNRC, BAH, SC, TOUR, RCAP, REGI, TECD, DG, CPRT, KORS, UNT, CM, ARMK, BOBE, TW, CSTE, MTZ, BWS, ANN, NJR and ENB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) DG 2) ZTS 3) TWX 4) F 5) ORCL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) C 2) SLXP 3) DG 4) DLR 5) AWAY
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Alt Energy +1.26% 2) Gold & Silver +1.19% 3) Tobacco +.96%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- HSH, AMSG, PANW, PLKI, ANIK, ANF, QSII, SZYM, TSN, MELI, CLNE, WB, SUNE, CLVS, SCTY, ANIK and ZOES
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) ACT 2) RSH 3) PANW 4) TSN 5) TLT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) ANF 2) TSN 3) BIIB 4) AMZN 5) BIIB
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Russia Urges ‘Emergency Steps’ Over Ukraine After Rebel Losses. Russia
called for unspecified “emergency” measures to halt the violence in
eastern Ukraine after separatist militias suffered the heaviest
casualties of their insurgency. “It’s necessary to take emergency steps
to stop the bloodshed and start an inclusive internal Ukrainian
dialogue,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his German counterpart
Frank-Walter Steinmeier by phone yesterday, according to the
ministry’s website. “There’s no excuse” for military action in the
southeastern part of the country, Lavrov said. Ukraine stepped up air
patrols over the eastern city of Donetsk yesterday as a convoy of
pro-Russian rebels moved
through the city with an anti-aircraft gun in tow, threatening
renewed violence after dozens of militants were killed in a
government operation to retake the area’s biggest airport.
- Free Toasters for China's Depositors? by A. Gary Shilling. In
part two of this four-part series, I wrote about China’s shadow banks
and the government’s efforts to assert more control over them.
- Japan Retail Sales Fall at Record Pace After Sales-Tax Rise.
Japan’s retail sales dropped at the fastest pace in at least 14 years
last month after the first consumption-tax increase since 1997 depressed
consumer spending. Sales in April declined 13.7 percent from the
previous month, the trade ministry reported today, more than the median
forecast of an 11.7 percent decline in a Bloomberg News survey
of 11 economists.
- Thais Say Facebook(FB) Goes Down as Junta Releases Red Shirts. Internet
users in Thailand reported temporarily losing access to Facebook Inc.
(FB), sparking speculation the social media site had been blocked by the
military. At the same time, the junta that seized power a week ago released
leaders from the Red Shirt movement opposed to the coup.
- EU Firms in China Worried About Tech Security, Poll Finds.
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said its members are
concerned about the security of their technology systems in the country,
citing a poll conducted after the U.S. indicted five Chinese military
officials for allegedly stealing corporate secrets. Eighty of 100
companies responding to a survey are concerned about their
information-technology systems in China, while 53 percent are more
concerned about security in the country than in other regions, the EU
Chamber said in an e-mail.
Most members have noticed increased online censorship or slower
Internet speeds in China in the past few weeks, according to the
survey.
- Asian Stocks Fall as Japan Retail Sales Slump in April.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from a
six-month high, as investors weighed a worse-than-estimated drop in
Japan’s retail sales before a report that’s expected to show the U.S.
economy contracted last quarter. Fast Retailing Co. (9983), Asia’s
biggest clothing seller, slipped 1.1 percent in Tokyo. BHP Billiton
Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, dropped 1.6 percent in Sydney as
copper futures declined. Samsung Electronics Co., the largest maker of
smartphones, climbed 1.5 percent in Seoul after unveiling a prototype
health-monitoring wristband. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.1 percent to 141.72 as
of 9:37 a.m. in Tokyo, after yesterday reaching its highest
level since Nov. 29.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Apple(AAPL) to acquire Beats Electronics for $3 billion. (video) Apple will acquire headphone maker Beats Electronics for $3 billion, Apple said on Wednesday. The deal is expected to close in the fiscal fourth
quarter. Apple will pay $2.6 billion in cash and another $400 million in
equity. It will also continue to use the Beats brand.
- China's millionaire machine slows. (video) China's millionaire machine has slowed, suggesting that the country's economic weakness is reaching the top of the economy.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Brazil pauses interest rate hikes despite high inflation. Brazil
left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, pausing one of
the world's longest-running tightening cycles to avoid choking its
weakening economy despite high inflation. In a unanimous decision, the central bank's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, kept its Selic rate at 11 percent,
breaking a streak of nine consecutive hikes as expected by a
majority of analysts and market traders.
Telegraph:
The Australian:
- Iron ore price slips further. The iron ore price has fallen further as fears over weakened steel demand in China continue to weigh on the commodity. Benchmark
iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China is
trading at $US96.80 a tonne, down from $US98.10 in the previous session.
Last week the iron ore price crashed through the $US100 a tonne mark
for the first time in nearly two years and it currently sits at its
lowest point since September 13, 2012 when it traded at $US96.10 a
tonne. Credit Suisse this week warned that even if iron ore manages
some stability in the near term -- or even modest gains -- the second
half of the year is likely to see the commodity price fall below 2012's
low of $US87 a tonne.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China Asks Banks to Control Worsening Bad Loan. Chinese regulator
asked banks to control worsening ratios of outstanding bad loans and
conduct stress tests. The regulator said in an internal meeting that
banks asset risks are "under control" while spreading to different
regions and industries, the report said.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.50 -4.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 80.25 -.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- 1Q GDP is estimated to fall -.5% versus a prior estimate of a +.1% gain.
- 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.1% versus a prior estimate of a +3.0% gain.
- 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a prior estimate of a +1.3% increase.
- 1Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a prior estimate of a +1.3% increase.
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 318K versus 326K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2650K versus 2653K prior.
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for April are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +3.4% gain in March.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of
-118,180 barrels versus a -7,226,000 barrel decline the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by 190,910 barrels versus a
970,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated
to rise by +445,450 barrels versus a +3,399,000 barrel gain the prior
week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.33% versus
a -.1% decline the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Pianalto speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Japan CPI, $29B 7Y
T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (AKS)
annual meeting could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial
and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open
modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The
Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 11.65 +1.22%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.57 -.37%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.07 +.14%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.47 -.04%
- ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -22.31%
- Total Put/Call .91 +28.17%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.59 +.29%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.75 -2.47%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.05 -1.39%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 81.43 +.62%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 252.89 -3.24%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 346.0 -.27%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 -3.75 basis points
- TED Spread 19.75 -.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
- Yield Curve 207.0 -10.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $96.80/Metric Tonne -1.33%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.90 -.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.30 +1.1 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -22 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Ukrainian Jets Circle Donetsk as Rebels Regroup After Rout. Ukraine stepped up air patrols over Donetsk as a convoy of
pro-Russian rebels moved through the city with an anti-aircraft gun in
tow, threatening renewed violence after clashes left dozens dead. Mayor
Oleksandr Lukyanchenko urged residents of the central part of the city
of 1 million people to stay indoors and away from their windows after
shots were fired near the local headquarters of the State Security
Service. The train of insurgents included two armored personnel
carriers, the mayor’s spokesman, Maksym Rovinskyi, said by phone from
Donetsk.
- German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises as Growth to Slow.
German unemployment unexpectedly increased for the first time in six
months amid signs of a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy that could
weigh on the fragile euro-area recovery. The number of people out of
work rose a seasonally adjusted 23,937 to 2.905 million in May, the
Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a
decline of 15,000, according to the median of 31 estimates in a
Bloomberg News survey.
- Fed’s Junk-Loan Caution Spurs Creative Accounting Alchemy. Lenders are increasingly allowing
junk-rated borrowers to adjust their earnings to make them look
more creditworthy as U.S. regulators increase pressure on banks
to refrain from underwriting too-risky deals. Such tweaks, which are permissible under more and more
credit agreements, can help companies stay in compliance with
their loan terms or to raise debt. More than half of loans this
year for issuers backed by private-equity firms allow them to boost
earnings by an unlimited amount through projected cost savings from
acquisitions and “any other action contemplated by the borrower,” said Vince Pisano, an analyst at Xtract Research LLC, citing a sample he’s reviewed. Riskier
borrowers may have more incentive to show better financial metrics
because the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the
Currency are increasing pressure on banks to adhere to underwriting
criteria they laid out last year amid
concern that the market is getting frothy. Issuers such as Thoma
Bravo LLC’s TravelClick Inc. have used adjustments, called add-backs, to raise earnings and decrease leverage when seeking
funding.
- Goldman’s Kostin Sees Hedge Funds Playing in Shrinking Sand Box. Here’s
the problem facing hedge funds investing in the stock market
this year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief equity strategist
David Kostin: the sand box they like to play in has gotten a lot
smaller. For example, equity hedge fund managers tend to have about a
quarter of their investments in consumer-discretionary stocks, Kostin
told Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television’s
“Market Makers” program today. The dispersion
of returns within that group is too small for managers on the prowl for
stocks to buy or short, Kostin said.
Wall Street Journal:
- China Urges Local Governments to Spend. Beijing Will Take Back Any Unspent Money. China's Finance Ministry said on Wednesday
it has asked local governments to speed up spending on infrastructure
and other budgeted investments to give sluggish economic growth a shot
in the arm.
Some spending has been
relatively slow this year and budgeted funds must reach all local
governments by the end of June, the Ministry of Finance said in a
statement on its website. If local
governments fail to spend the funds without a good reason by the end of
September, Beijing will take the unspent money back, the ministry
warned. "Certain difficulties [in the
economy] cannot be underestimated," the ministry said, pledging to give
fiscal spending a larger role in boosting economic growth. "[Local
governments] must speed up spending on infrastructure construction
projects and make spending materialize as soon as possible," said the
statement dated May 21. Over the first
four months of the year, China's fiscal spending was up 9.6% year over
year, down from an increase of 13.6% over the same period last year,
data from the finance ministry showed.
- Japan Lower House Staff: Casino Bill Won't Be Discussed This Month. Lawmakers Believe It Will Be Difficult for Casino Bill To Get Passed During Current Session.
- Iron-Ore Prices Unlikely to Rise Soon, NDRC Says. China's Top Economic Planning Agency Blames Flood of Supply. Iron-ore prices are unlikely to rise over
the next three months from their current trough, the lowest in nearly
two years, China's top economic planning agency said Wednesday. Prices
for the mineral, which is forged into steel, depend almost entirely on
demand from China, the world's second-largest economy, which consumes
two thirds of global ore supply and makes nearly half the world's steel.
- 'Serious Conditions' at Phoenix Veterans Affairs Office, Watchdog Says. The Phoenix VA Health Care System failed to properly schedule care
for its patients, according to an interim report by the inspector
general of the Department of Veterans Affairs. Accusations of delayed or
denied care appointments have led to calls for an investigation of the
department and the resignation of Veterans Affairs Secretary Eric
Shinseki. The interim report cited "substantiated serious conditions" in the Phoenix...
- New Global Accounting Rules to Affect How Companies Book Revenue. Change Affects When Firms Record Sales; Software Makers Could Do So Sooner, Auto Makers Later.
MarketWatch.com:
- 43% call Obamacare ‘mostly negative’ for America. When asked to think about their health insurance situation and their
ability to access quality health care, just 12% of Americans felt better
about this than they did last year, while 20% felt worse, according to a survey released Wednesday by Bankrate.com . And many think that could be due to Obamacare: Almost
two out of three Americans don’t think the Affordable Care Act has had a
positive impact on American lives, with 43% saying they think the ACA
has had a mostly
negative impact and 21% saying they think it hasn’t made much, if any,
impact. Fewer than one-third of Americans (28% to be exact) say that the
ACA has
had a mostly positive impact, according to the survey, which polled a
nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults living in the U.S.,
some of whom had Obamacare and others who didn’t. “The administration is saying it’s a big success, but the negative
feelings are strong still and entrenched,” says Bankrate.com insurance
analyst Doug Whiteman.
- Looming EPA ‘war on coal’ draws business backlash.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Real Clear Politics:
- Get Ready For the Subprime Mortgage Crack-Up 2.0. Earlier this month the following headline appeared in the Wall Street Journal:
"U.S. Backs Off Tight Mortgage Rules: In Reversal, Administration
[HUD/FHA] and Fannie, Freddie Regulator Push to Make More Credit
Available to Boost Housing Recovery." Clearly memories as to the
causes of the recent housing market collapse are short. Indeed,
political pressures are once again increasing on the private sector to
degrade sound lending practices.
Reuters:
- French jobless total hits new high in April. The number of people without a job in France rose by 14,800 in April to a new record, undermining President Francois Hollande's campaign to bring unemployment
down.
- Russia's Lavrov warns of "fratricidal war" in Ukraine. Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov on Wednesday accused the West of pushing Ukraine into a
"fratricidal war" and repeated Moscow's calls for an end to the interim
Ukrainian government's military action against pro-Russian separatists.
Lavrov's remarks were in line with frequent Russian statements placing
blame on the United States and EU for the turmoil in Ukraine, where
government forces killed dozens of
rebels in the eastern Donetsk province on Monday and Tuesday.
Telegraph:
CCTV:
- China's Li Says Global Economy Recovery Faces Uncertainty. China
Premier Li reiterated China's proactive fiscal policy and prudent
monetary policy.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -1.88% 2) Steel -.92% 3) REITs -.90%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- DSW, HCN, DAKT, GOMO, TOUR, SPNC, EXAM, DDD, VRX, AGN, CRI, HQH, HQL, CATM, ROLL, SWM, INFY, SHOO, ANF, BRX, ASCMA, CAVM, IPAR, RGLD, ALGT, RXN and BEE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) ANF 2) WLT 3) XOP 4) AMAT 5) HYG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) HD 2) ANF 3) DG 4) CLF 5) LOW
Charts:
