Saturday, December 28, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:
WSJ.com:  
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (COIN) and (DPZ).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

NewsMax:     

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @Bithume
  • @minchoi
  • It's over. Humanoid robots are no longer sci-fi. Robots can now perform complex tasks all on their own. And they are becoming more autonomous, flexible, and adaptive. 10 wild examples: (video)
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @MarioNawfal
  • SYRIA’S NEW INTEL CHIEF: A FORMER AL-QAEDA COMMANDER. Anas Hassan Khattab, a UN-designated terrorist and co-founder of the Nusra Front, is now Syria’s head of general intelligence. Yes, you read that right. Known as Abu Ahmed Hudood, Khattab was blacklisted for ties to Al-Qaeda and sanctioned by the U.S. for financing and facilitating terrorism. His promotion follows a string of HTS leaders taking key government posts after the Turkish and U.S.-backed coup.
  • @RobSchneider
  • @_BlakeHabyan
  • @BGatesIsAPsycho
  • @MdBreathe
  • @harryfisherEMTP
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Bannons_WarRoom
  • @Artemisfornow
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @its_The_Dr
  • @MAGAVoice
  • This 30 second video is the exact moment I knew the Deep State would come after Matt Gaetz Matt Gaetz was going to expose: - Insider trading - Ukraine money Laundering. I PRAY MATT GAETZ EXPOSES ALL OF THEM. (video)
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:

Friday, December 27, 2024

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Year-End Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.4%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.2 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.4 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.5 -1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.66 +.08:  Growth Rate +13.8% unch., P/E 21.9 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.60 +.16: Growth Rate +25.2% unch., P/E 33.9 -1.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.92 -74.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 29.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.9% -.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 46.2%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 42.8 versus 40.2 in Nov.

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +2.0% rise in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

  • (MTH) 2-for-1
  • (CVLG) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for Dec. could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 22.6 +3.6
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 17.1% of Issues Advancing, 80.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .87 -15.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$440.0M
  • 21 New 52-Week Highs, 79 New Lows
  • 53.0% (-3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 -4.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.7 -.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.6 -.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,865.0 -1.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (FEAR) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.7 +43.2%
  • Vix 17.7 +19.9%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +13.0%

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.13%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.0 +1.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.62%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Reversal Lower, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Retail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.7 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.9 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.3 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.58 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.44 +.29: Growth Rate +25.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.9 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.66 +110.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 24.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.2% -.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 51.8% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.2%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +188 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +162 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long