Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -2.4% 2) Computer Services -1.8% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LXU, TLK, BBSI, CDRE, FLGT, CBOE, OXY, ABM, HHH, UNFI, MEOH, IPGP, BETA, WD, YETI, VIA, PSKY, CRSP, CNC and BNTX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) CNC 3) CVE 4) VFC 5) TECH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CNC 2) BNTX 3) NAVN 4) SNOW 5) BBWI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) XLP 4) XLI 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.7% 2) Gold & Silver +2.1% 3) Networking +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AXTI, ZVRA, FIGR, VNET, UAMY, BBIO, UMAC, AAOI, MLYS, CEPU, MAZE, CAPR, ALOY, UEC, TSSI, VRTX, SEDG, DYN, OUST, LITE, BW, GDS, FUTU, LASR, VERA, VOYG, RCAT, ABX, CRCL, SNDK, GLW, LFUS, RIVN, PTRN, BIOA, LFUS, PTRN, ISSSC, ZYME, RIVN, RYAM, COHR, GGAL, LOMA, AEHR, KALV, CECO, EGO, LTM, VICR, VIAV, INFQ, RUN, CELH, TGS, OCS, CWEN/A, ELF, FSLY, PBF, RRX, CASY, BABA, SNDX, DFTX, EMBJ, GNK, FSS, AEO, ADEA, CRESY, VRT, BIDU, DFTX, HIMS, SAN and BILI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HIMX 2) BRBR 3) CGNX 4) SAVA 5) ASHS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INKT 2) NIO 3) ZVRA 4) STGW 5) BBIO

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) KRE 3) XBI 4) PBPH 5) PBOG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CPB)/.57 

After the Close: 

• (DSGX)/.49
• (WOOF)/.02
• (SFIX)/-.05 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Jan. 
• The Core CPI MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Feb. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,642,500 barrels versus a +3,475,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,281,750 barrels versus a -1,704,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -16,250 barrels versus a +429,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.01% versus a +.6% gain prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Balance for Feb. is estimated at -$309.5B versus -$94.6B in Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, OPEC monthly report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Retuters IPSOS PCSI for March, UBS Consumer Conference, BofA Information/Business Services Conference, Cantor Fitzgerald Tech/Industrial Growth Conference, RBC Financial Institutions Conference, Wolfe FinTech Conference, (TEL) annual meeting, (ADI) annual meeting, (AMAT) annual meeting and the BNP Paribas Consumer Staples/Ingredients Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.7 +1.0
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 65.5% of Issues Advancing, 32.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.02 +39.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$30.6M
  
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 57.1% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 +11.3

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 97.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 47.0% +15.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.3 +2.0%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 95.0 -5.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% +2.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 531.5 -24.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.0 +.03%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.6 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (Moved to FEAR from EXTREME FEAR) +8.0
• 1-Day Vix 15.1 -33.5%
  
• Vix 22.9 -10.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -1.1%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Threatens Harder Strikes If Iran Hits Global Oil Supply, Pledges US 'Excursion' Nearly Complete. 
• BREAKING: Iranian Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi says several countries, including Russia and China, have contacted Iran over a ceasefire but adds that Tehran’s first condition for a ceasefire is that “no further aggression be launched.” 
• FBI Obtains Election Records From Arizona Senate.
• Security Fears Suddenly Emerge Over Trump's Visit To China.
• From Redcoats To Robots: AI Is Challenging Our Republic's Future.
• Jesse Jackson's Son Rips Obama, Biden For Hijacking Father's Memorial To Attack Trump.    
• *TRUMP: AHEAD OF INITIAL IRAN WAR TIMELINE BY A LOT. *TRUMP: HAVE TAKEN OUT IRAN LEADERSHIP TWICE, MAYBE THREE TIMES. *TRUMP: COULD HIT IRAN ELECTRIC PRODUCTION, BUT DON'T WANT TO. *TRUMP: LEFT SOME OF MOST IMPORTANT IRAN TARGETS LEFT FOR LATER. 
• Travelers To Face 3-Hour Delays In Airports: TSA. 
• Trump Assures GOP Supporters Of 'Short-Term Excursion' In Iran. 
• Goldman's Global Affairs Chief Warns Of Middle East Spillover Threats.
• "Straits of.... America".  
• Investigation Suggests US Navy Likely Behind Attack That Killed 150 Schoolgirls In Iran. 
• Solar And Storage Could Reshape Rural Electricity Markets. 
• With World Seemingly At War, DARPA Finds Time To Unveil The X-76.
• Wait, so the most idealistic, effectively altruistic and woke chatbot ever created was pegging its future on the most ruthless and pragmatic entity in human history? ANTHROPIC CFO: U.S. GOVERNMENT ACTIONS COULD CUT 2026 REVENUE BY MULTIPLE BILLIONS ACROSS THE BUSINESS — COURT FILING. 
• Dire Straits No More...? 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump hints Middle East conflict might end soon.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to rebound as Trump comments drive oil lower.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.  
• Stock futures are flat as traders weigh Trump's cue that Iran war may soon end: Live updates.
• There's another big reason why shipping companies and insurers aren't willing to risk the Strait of Hormuz.

• @redpillb0t

• Epstein was trained as a spy under Israeli Prime Minister. The FBI knew the entire time. (pic)

• @MarioNawful

• An Argentine journalist in Tel Aviv described a terrifying moment after 2 missiles hit without any sirens sounding, forcing people to run for shelters. The fact that no alarms were triggered shocked everyone on the ground, including Israeli soldiers at the scene. The strikes reportedly occurred near Ben Gurion Airport during the afternoon in Israel. (video)
• Iran's biggest leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, and there's ships already pretending to be Chinese-owned in order to pass and not be struck by Iran. Well the IRGC just put out a hell of a statement I couldn't help but laugh when reading it: "Any Arab or European nation that expels the ambassadors of Israel and the United States from its territory will, starting tomorrow, have full authority and freedom to pass through the Strait of Hormuz." This is going to get interesting. 
• Hundreds are rallying outside Epstein's creepy Zorro Ranch for Women's March, demanding justice for his victims. Epstein was a monster, but don't forget his co-conspirators who enabled the horror, and are still out there. (video) 

• @Tarikh_Eran

• Large chunks of Tehran just lost all their electricity. Based on the sound of Iranians in the video you can tell everyone is puzzled and shocked by what just happened. 

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• '5 PLANES STREAKING THE SKY'. EVERYONE'S REALIZING!!! EXCELLENT CLIP - WORTH SHARING. (video)

• @JohnBasham

• A List Of Just A Few Of The Things RINO @JohnCornyn Has Supported In Just The Past 6 Years: Trump Can't Win. BLM Fraud. George Floyd Hoax. Dr. Fauci. COVID Mandates. Russiagate Hoax. J6 Arrests Of MAGA. Christine Blasey Ford Hoax. DACA AMNESTY OF ILLEGALS. Gun Control. Unlimited Ukraine $.

• @Osint613

• Footage from Iran right now looks like something out of a movie. I have no idea what they are hitting or how they are hitting, but this is something completely new for me. (video)

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• NEW: The FBI has seized election records from Maricopa County, Arizona as part of an expanding federal probe into potential election irregularities. Agents obtained terabytes of voting data via grand jury subpoena from the Arizona Senate tied to its 2024 election, according to @jsolomonReports. "Every year, the House Administration Committee sends observers—one Democrat, one Republican—to various voting centers." "One of the teams, the Republican-Democrat team that went to Maricopa County, observed something very disturbing." "They took pictures. They wrote a long report." (video)

• @amuse

• TEXAS SENATE RACE: The Trump administration is becoming increasingly concerned about growing rumors that John Cornyn used taxpayer funds to cover up a sexual relationship with a male staffer. Cornyn must authorize the release of settlement records.

• @epsteinsearchin

• Steve Cohen. Founder of Point72. $35 billion hedge fund. Owner of the NY Mets. Pictured in the Epstein files with a person whose face is redacted. The DOJ released the photo. No charges.
• From the Epstein files, an email where he claims: "I killed Pons years ago." Stanley Pons. The cold fusion researcher. Epstein says he got Congress to defund the research. He didn't just traffic girls. He influenced which science lived and which died. (pic) 

• @CollinRugg

• JUST IN: Fox News' Laura Ingraham pressures Sen Ted Cruz to tell her why Sen Lindsey Graham is "coaching" Netanyahu "on how to lobby President Trump." Ingraham: The WSJ says Graham traveled several times to Israel in recent weeks... meeting with members of the country's intelligence agency, spoke with Netanyahu, coaching him on how to lobby President Trump for action... Cruz: Lindsey is passionate about defending America... Ingraham: This is something of a totally different level, is it not? Cruz: No. Actually, when it comes to the threat Iran poses, Lindsey agrees they pose a major threat to America... Ingraham: Our point is working with Netanyahu so closely to lobby President Trump, acting as an intermediary for a foreign country. Is that appropriate? (video)

• @ImMeme0

• BREAKING: The parents of ISIS-supporting NYC bomb thrower Ibrahim Kayumi own a $2.5 million Pennsylvania mansion. The 5,800-square-foot home in scenic Newtown, Pennsylvania, features six bedrooms and five bathrooms. His parents are naturalized citizens from Afghanistan, who fled their war-torn country seeking safety and opportunity in America. And this is how their son repays the country that gave them a new life, by embracing extremism and hating this nation. (video)

• @merlinscapital

• NEW: JARED KUSHNER + FAMILY AND EPSTEIN WERE VERY CLOSE ACCORDING TO LATEST EPSTEIN FILES. (pic)

• @DiedSuddenly

• This CIA document basically concludes that ivermectin cures cancer… (pic)

• @rawsalerts

• Reports indicate the United States has intercepted encrypted communications believed to be from Iranian officials that allegedly discuss activating sleeper cells across Western countries, including within the United States. According to early intelligence reports, the messages were intercepted by U.S. intelligence agencies and are now being analyzed, with federal authorities closely monitoring the situation as part of an ongoing national security assessment. (video)

• @memeticsisyphus

• This really is an all time photo. A protestor shouting about the pros of immigration is interrupted by an Islamic terrorist throwing a bomb jumping over him. (pic)

• @iAnonPatriot

• Liberal white people will literally tell you to stop being “Islamophobic” while Muslims launch bombs over their heads… (video)

• @DC_Draino

• BREAKING: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announces plan to BLOCK passage of 'must-pass' FISA reauthorization unless the SAVE America Act is attached. "FISA IS UP FOR REAUTHORIZATION. No clean reauthorization unless SAVE AMERICA ACT attached." Patience is wearing thin. SEND IT TO TRUMP! Speaker Luna sure has a nice ring to it.

• @KelleyAshbyPaul

• Here are the senators who voted against Rand Paul’s amendment to cut refugee welfare… they gave all the usual double talk excuses. Meanwhile we have added another $2 TRILLION in debt since Trump took office. (list)

• @profstonge

• Biden drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from 638 million to 395 million -- with the biggest drain just before midterm elections to buy votes with cheap gas. Trump's been refilling it at 50,000 barrels every day he's been in office. But that only added 20 million barrels because the pipes literally aren't big enough to refill it at the rate Biden drained it.

• @AutismCapital

• NEW: Professor Jiang believes that Dubai is not coming back. "It's all been a mirage. They spent a lot of money creating this image of itself as a safe and secure place where you don't pay taxes, and you can make a lot of money, so put your money here, but guess what, just one ballistic missile has destroyed this mirage, and once the mirage is destroyed it's never coming back. We can expect billions of dollars to flee the GCC, especially the UAE over the next few weeks. (video)

• @ChildrensHD

• The USDA is planning a mass vaccination campaign on chickens for bird flu. Even though RFK Jr. and others warned of the dangers, the U.S. is preparing to move forward with this.

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• BREAKING: Newly released bodycam footage from the DOGE raid shows the scale of alleged corruption investigators say Elon Musk confronted on the first day of the operation. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +2.0% to +4.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 -6.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.0 -4.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Crude Oil 85.40/bbl. -9.9% 
• Gold 5,185.4 USD/t oz. +1.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.77 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 96.9 +.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.10% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.43% -4.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.6%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.15%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Surging Inflation Expectations, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.3 -.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 -1.4% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .29 +14.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.1 +.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 146.4 +.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 96.1 +10.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 -.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.6 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 -12.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.8 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +13.7% +.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.31 +1.52:  Growth Rate +16.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.76% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 523.38 +8.59: Growth Rate +31.5% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 28.5 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 -28.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.9 -.2% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.5 euros/megawatt-hour +5.8% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% -1.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% -90.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.55 +30.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 60.8%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +740 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long