Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Stocks Falling Mid-day, Led Lower Again by Commodity Shares

Indices
S&P 500 1,206.18 -.68%
DJIA 10,390.14 -.49%
NASDAQ 2,121.15 -.85%
Russell 2000 652.25 -1.71%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,060.53 -.80%
S&P Barra Growth 577.26 -.54%
S&P Barra Value 625.58 -.68%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.10 -.33%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 712.47 -1.0%
Morgan Stanley Technology 501.01 -.51%
Transports 3,673.60 -.61%
Utilities 421.99 -1.71%
Put/Call .95 +21.79%
NYSE Arms 1.31 -2.98%
Volatility(VIX) 13.65 +3.41%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 -26.58%
US Dollar 89.95 -.17%
CRB 329.14 -.19%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.45 -.70%
Unleaded Gasoline 195.50 -3.01%
Natural Gas 14.35 +.89%
Heating Oil 202.50 -1.21%
Gold 469.20 -.02%
Base Metals 131.84 +1.16%
Copper 178.65 +1.16%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.35% -.23%

Leading Sectors %
Restaurants +.65%
Insurance +.14%
Banks +.11%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -2.21%
Coal -3.77%
Steel -4.14%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Steel shorts and Energy-related shorts. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio market neutral. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is negative given the decline in long-term rates and energy prices. Unleaded gas futures are down about 35% from highs seen last month. This is with refinery utilization down to 69.8%. Demand for gasoline is no longer decelerating. It is falling. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close as worries over earnings offsets lower energy prices and rates.

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