Thursday, March 02, 2006

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour as Oil Bounces and Long-term Rates Rise

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs and Networking longs. I added to my (ANF) long this morning and to an existing short, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is above average. The AAII percentage of Bulls fell to 40.94% this week from 43.21% the prior week. This reading is now below average levels. The AAII percentage of Bears rose to 29.13% this week from 28.40% the prior week. This reading is still around average levels. I expect bullish sentiment to rise modestly next week. These readings are still not near levels associated with short-term tops. Since the average stock is already up about 6.7% for the year, these numbers continue to bode well for a continuation of recent strength. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, tech stock gains and stabilizing long-rates.

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