Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Stocks Finish Lower on Lingering Economic Concerns

Indices
S&P 500 1,270.92 -.45%
DJIA 11,125.73 -.54%
NASDAQ 2,061.99 -1.41%
Russell 2000 689.89 -1.52%
Wilshire 5000 12,708.68 -.56%
S&P Barra Growth 584.77 -.49%
S&P Barra Value 684.86 -.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 614.69 -.37%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 773.09 -1.05%
Morgan Stanley Technology 459.10 -1.74%
Transports 4,295.23 -1.98%
Utilities 438.21 +1.11%
Put/Call .91 +12.35%
NYSE Arms 1.07 -6.76%
Volatility(VIX) 15.05 +.67%
ISE Sentiment 117.00 +18.18%
US Dollar 85.02 -.33%
CRB 349.56 -.08%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 75.09 +.24%
Unleaded Gasoline 227.95 +.14%
Natural Gas 7.62 +.61%
Heating Oil 208.20 +.08%
Gold 659.10 +.05%
Base Metals 228.52 -1.14%
Copper 359.75 +.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.97% -.12%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.50%
Utilities +1.11%
HMOs +.78%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -2.01%
Steel -2.59%
Airlines -2.75%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Banc of America:
- Rated (NVS) Buy, target $65.
- Upgraded (RIG) and (GSF) to Buy.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Electronic Arts(ERTS) said its first-quarter loss widened as the company increased spending to develop games for new consoles. Results beat estimates.
- US Treasuries were little changed, keeping 10-year yields near the lowest since June.
- Citigroup’s(C) private-equity unit is raising a $3.5 billion fund to help finance acquisitions by leveraged buyout firms.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Internet longs, Retail longs and Semi longs. I added (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, sector performance was mostly negative and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish. The 10-year yield finished at session lows, falling to 4.97%. Cyclicals and small caps were underperformers today as investors appear to be worried again that growth will slow too much as a result of the Fed overshooting. I suspect this belief will change again after the Fed meeting next week. The fact that recent economic and inflation data have mostly exceeded estimates, yet the 10-year yield is at 4.97%, leads me to conclude that bond investors are much more worried about slowing growth than inflation. The bond market is telling the Fed to pause. I expect they are listening.

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