Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Retail longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is falling and volume is about average. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.9% year over year last week vs. a 3.3% rise the prior week. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.8%. I still see little evidence that a significant decline in consumer spending is beginning, even as investors continue to price this into stocks. As I have said before, mortgage resets were supposed to send consumer spending plunging this year, and they have not. I still expect the back-to-school selling season to exceed expectations. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain hunting and declining energy prices.