Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Stocks Higher into Final Hour Ahead of Tomorrow's Jobs Report
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is heavy. The major averages and breadth are grinding to session highs on good volume. Gaming, retail and hospitals are the only real sources of any weakness. Technology, energy and transportation remain sources of strength today. I suspect tomorrow's non-farm payrolls release will come in around estimates of 100K, possibly a bit lower. The market should react in a positive fashion to the report, given other stronger economic readings of late. The 10-year yield is stable and my intraday gauge of investor angst is around average levels. While it is possible, I suspect someone other than Google (GOOG) will acquire Monster Worldwide (MNST), which is surging on buyout speculation. The fact that refinery utilization is near levels seen after Hurricane Katrina is temporarily propping up the energy complex. However, artificially inflated prices will just further exaggerate ongoing pervasive global demand destruction and raises the probability of substantial oil price declines in the future. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on positive earnings reports, better economic data, short-covering, falling energy prices and buyout speculation.
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