Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Spain $185 Billion Refinancing Tests Rajoy’s Bank Cleanup Effort. A rush by recession-hit Spanish businessmen and consumers to restructure their loans will test Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s pledge of a “definitive” cleanup of the nation’s crisis-hit banks. Spain’s banks have refinanced about 140 billion euros ($185 billion) of loans outside the country’s crippled real estate industry, according to Oliver Wyman, a consulting firm that did a stress test of Spanish lenders. Bad loans surged to a record 11.2 percent of total lending, the Bank of Spain said yesterday. 
  • Less Profit in Sight as Maersk Overcapacity Hits Growth: Freight. European container-shipping operators such as A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S may benefit little from higher volumes next year as carrier lines battle to remain profitable amid overcapacity and weak demand. Global lines will ship the equivalent of 168 million 20- foot containers, an increase of 6.6 percent from 2012, according to London-based shipping-services company Clarkson Plc. (CKN) Traffic on mainline Asia-Europe routes will lag global growth, rising 4 percent to 21 million 20-foot boxes as low European consumer demand limits orders. Economic weakness caused by the debt crisis in Europe, which accounts for more than a third of global trade, is putting pressure on earnings at shipping lines such as Copenhagen-based Maersk Line, the world’s largest, and CMA CGM SA. Further clouding the outlook, industry capacity will grow 7.5 percent next year, Clarkson says, undermining efforts to boost profit on Asia-Europe routes as earlier rate rises struggle to take hold.
  • Axa Downgraded by S&P on Investments, European Economy. Axa SA (CS), France’s largest insurer, was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s as the economic slump in Europe weighs on results. The insurer’s credit rating was cut to A- from A as “unfavorable investment market conditions and weak economic prospects are likely to dampen AXA group’s earnings growth,” the ratings firm said yesterday in a statement on the Paris- based company.
  • Japan Exports Slide. Japan’s exports fell for a sixth month in November and the trade deficit swelled, underscoring the challenge that incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces in reviving growth. Shipments slid 4.1 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 23 economists was for a 5.5 percent decline. Imports rose 0.8 percent leaving a deficit of 953.4 billion yen ($11.3 billion), the third-largest on record. Exports to China fell 14.5 percent from the previous year as shipments of construction equipment tumbled almost 75 percent and cars dropped 68 percent by value, improving from an 84 percent decline in October. Exports to the European Union dropped 19.9 percent, while those to the U.S. rose 5.3 percent.
  • India Sees Children Dying as $2 Billion Program Proves Defective.
  • How Global Headwinds Are Slowing Indian Growth. India hasn’t been spared the effects of the recession and the recent slowing of global growth. Weak Chinese imports in particular have had a distinctly negative impact on suppliers such as South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Australia and Brazil. In the 2010-2011 fiscal year, India’s trade gap with China jumped to $28 billion, its largest shortfall with a trading partner.
  • Alcoa(AA) May Be Cut to Junk by Moody’s on Lower Aluminum. Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, may have its credit rating cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service Inc. after the price of the metal slumped. Moody’s placed Alcoa’s Baa3 senior unsecured rating, the lowest investment-grade level, under review for downgrade, the ratings company said today in a statement. The review applies to all of Alcoa’s $8.3 billion of debt, according to the statement. The review “reflects the challenging headwinds” facing the New York-based company, Moody’s said. The recovery in the aluminum industry is “slow and uneven” and the price of the metal will remain at 85 to 95 cents a pound for the next several quarters, it said. 
  • Potash Seen Falling as Asia Wields Purchasing Power: Commodities. China and India are set to negotiate the biggest price cut in three years to buy potash as they break a deadlock in meetings with Russian and North American producers that dominate the $24 billion market for the crop nutrient.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Report on Libya cites State Dept. for security failures, confirms no protest before attack. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has accepted 29 suggestions to improve embassy security issued as part of a review board's report that faults Clinton's department for security failures and confirms no protest preceded the deadly attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya. The release of the report, posted Tuesday night on the State Department's website, comes after more than three months of intense debate in Washington over who was behind the attack, what motivated the attacks and why U.S. authorities weren't able to stop the violence, which took the lives of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. Republicans have accused Obama administration officials of giving the American people a series of misleading explanations for the attack from the start. Much of the criticism focused on U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice's comments five days after the Sept. 11 attack that the violence was a "spontaneous" result of protests against an anti-Islam film. Although the motive for the attack remains unclear, the report confirms what quickly became evident -- that the attack was the coordinated work of terrorists. But in many ways, the security failures were of even greater concern, and Clinton vowed Tuesday to address them.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations 
Oppenheimer:
  • Rated (FLS) Outperform, target $175.
Maxim:
  • Rated (BIDU) Sell, target $80.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.5 +.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.10%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (GIS)/.79
  • (ATU)/.50
  • (FDX)/1.41
  • (PAYX)/.41
  • (BBBY)/1.02
  • (MLHR)/.39
  • (SCS)/.22
  • (JBL)/.56
  • (NAV)/-1.08  
Economic Releases
 8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for November are estimated to fall to 872K versus 894K in October.
  • Building Permits for November are estimated to rise to 875K versus 866K in October.
10:30 am EST 
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,750,000 barrels versus a +843,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,000,000 barrels versus a +5,000,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,000,000 barrels versus a +2,986,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated unch. versus a -.2% decline the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, 7Y T-Note auction and the (JCI) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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