Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:38 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Draghi’s Bank of Italy Knew of Monte Paschi Missteps in 2010. The Bank of Italy under former Governor Mario Draghi spotted accounting irregularities that allowed Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA to mask losses more than two years before the lender was forced to say it will have to restate profit. In 2010, “a problem came to light” on Monte Paschi’s booking of a structured deal called Santorini, Italy’s Rome- based central bank said in a report dated Jan. 28. The Bank of Italy alerted “other authorities” a year later and talks with those regulators, which it didn’t identify, haven’t concluded. It didn’t explain the delay in forcing the bank to disclose the information.
  • Samaras Last Best Greek Hope With Compliance Not Defiance. At his first cabinet meeting after two inconclusive elections and six weeks of turmoil had pushed Greece to the brink of exiting the euro, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said he’d had enough. In a seven-minute speech, he warned his ministers to deliver while reducing their pay by 30 percent. “I’m not interested in good intentions,” Samaras said at the June 21 meeting, televised on state-run NET TV. “I want results.”
  • Here We Go Again, Underpricing Europe Debt Risk. Greece is the most conspicuous example, as fears about its possible exit from the single-currency area faded. But Spain and Italy, the twin bellwethers of sentiment on Europe, show how markets are underpricing sovereign risk -- again.
  • South Korea to Fire Space Rocket as North Warns of Nuclear Test. South Korea will attempt to launch a civilian space rocket and satellite today as signs mount that North Korea, which sent a satellite into orbit in December, is preparing to test a nuclear device. The 33-meter (108-feet) KSLV-I rocket, or Naro, is set to be fired today from a site near Goheung, 330 kilometers (200 miles) south of Seoul, with a 100-kilogram research satellite, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Education, Science and Technology. Naro, built with domestic and Russian technology, has had two failed launches since 2009, while two attempts were abandoned last year due to technical faults.
  • UN Syria Envoy Says Syria Unraveling as Assad Holds On. United Nations special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi offered the grimmest picture yet of Syria’s descent into chaos, leaving little doubt that all diplomatic paths have been exhausted as the conflict drags on indefinitely. Syria is unraveling before the eyes of the world, Brahimi told the UN Security Council in New York, according to an account provided by two UN officials who declined to be named because the meeting was closed to the public. The embattled regime, which has defied forecasts of its imminent collapse, is instead surviving with no end in sight even if its legitimacy has been irrevocably lost, said the two officials. “Brahimi is sadly confined to playing the tragic chorus in a drama over which he has no control,” said Richard Gowan, associate director of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, said in an interview. 
  • Daimler to Rio Tinto Show New Surge in Deals Perilous: Real M&A. While the strongest resurgence in dealmaking since the financial crisis is cheering investors and emboldening acquirers, history shows that the largest mergers are often more trouble than they’re worth. About two-thirds of company takeovers exceeding $20 billion since 1996 -- including the unions of Pfizer Inc. and Pharmacia Corp., Sprint Corp. and Nextel Communications Inc., and Daimler- Benz AG and Chrysler Corp. -- generated losses for the acquirer’s shareholders, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 78 buyers lagged behind the MSCI World Index by a median of 13 percentage points in the three years after completing the transactions, falling 21 percent, the data show.
  • California Lawmakers Propose Bullet Tax to Curb Gun Crime. California should tax bullets to pay for mental-health programs and to put more police in crime- ridden areas, two Democratic state lawmakers proposed. One bill, by Assemblyman Roger Dickinson of Sacramento would impose a 5-cent tax per bullet sold to expand a program that screens children for mental illness. A similar measure from Oakland’s Rob Bonta would aid law enforcement in cities with the highest violent-crime rates. A third would require licenses for ammunition dealers and have them report all sales. 
  • Democrats Mull Revenue Offset to Spending Cuts, Reid Says. Senate Democrats will consider revenue-generating alternatives that could be used to offset automatic spending cuts set to take effect March 1, Majority Leader Harry Reid said today. Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said Democrats will view options at their policy retreat next week for limiting the automatic cuts, known as sequestration. The spending reductions, to take place over nine years, would be split evenly between defense and non-defense programs. The Republican-controlled House has voted to replace cuts in defense programs with other spending cuts. Democrats say new revenue should be used to head off some of the reductions. Reid told reporters he wants to “move forward and, on short increments, pay for the sequestration.” Later, Reid said in an interview that he meant “maybe three months at a time, six months at a time, a year at a time.”  
  • Mounting U.S. Stock Risk Seen in Economic Data: Chart of the Day. Economic reports are producing enough disappointing data to drag down U.S. stocks, according to Gina Martin Adams, a Wells Fargo strategist.
  • LG Electronics Reports Wider Loss on EU Fines, TV Demand Slump. LG Electronics Inc. (066570), the world’s second-largest TV maker, unexpectedly reported a wider fourth- quarter loss because of European Union price-fixing fines, slumping demand and a stronger won. The net loss was 468 billion-won ($432 million), Seoul-based LG said in a statement today. That compares with a loss of 112 billion won a year earlier. The company was expected to make a profit of 88.8 billion won, based on the average of 21 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Fitch: May Cut US Rating in Absence of Debt Ceiling Consensus. The U.S. risks a credit-rating downgrade if politicians can't reach a consensus on the government debt ceiling this year, a Fitch Ratings official said Wednesday. Fitch left its rating of U.S. credit at triple-A Monday after politicians agreed to suspend the debt limit, but may review it again if no consensus is forthcoming, said Sovereigns Managing Director Tony Stringer at a Fitch Sovereign Credit Rating Briefing. "The views of the Republicans and Democrats are still polarized. And they haven't shown signs that they are close to agreement to raise debt ceiling." 
  • Banks Worry CFPB May Be Weakened. Banks have long complained about the sweeping powers of a new consumer financial regulator, but now they are concerned that the agency could be weakened. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is facing a legal cloud over its authority, and the financial industry is worried the agency's rules affecting mortgages and other parts of the industry could be declared invalid. The trouble began last week after a federal appeals court ruled that President Barack Obama's appointments to a national labor panel were unconstitutional because of the way he used the longstanding practice of making recess appointments.
  • Individual Investors Help Drive Stock Surge. Small investors are jumping back into the stock market after abandoning it during the financial crisis. The return by individual investors is a big reason why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is pushing toward an all-time high. Many analysts and strategists say individual investors are providing another source of fuel for the stock market. One piece of evidence: A total of $6.8 billion shifted into U.S. stock mutual funds in the first three weeks of 2013, according to mutual-fund tracker Lipper Inc. That is the biggest move since 2001.
  • Fed Risks Losses From Bonds. The Federal Reserve could be charting a course that leaves the highly profitable central bank with no extra income to hand over to the U.S. Treasury for several years. That is the conclusion of five Fed staff economists who examined how the central bank's bond-buying programs will affect its profitability over the long run. Several years from now, when the economy is stronger, the Fed is expected to sell bonds and raise short-term interest rates to tighten credit and restrain inflation. The group found the Fed might have to sell bonds at a loss and incur higher expenses on interest it pays to banks on the reserves they hold at the Fed. That, in turn, could become a political headache for the Fed, and might even weigh on some officials today as they decide whether to continue these programs, which are aimed at driving down borrowing costs and spurring economic growth and hiring. The issue could come up at the Fed's two-day policy meeting that concludes today. 
  • Probe of Boeing(BA) 787 Battery Intensifies. U.S. air-safety investigators Tuesday said they are stepping up microscopic and chemical examinations of the lithium-ion battery that caught fire aboard a parked Japan Airlines Co. 9201.TO +0.81% Boeing BA -0.47% 787 three weeks ago, still seeking to determine whether internal defects may have played a role in the blaze.
  • Bank of Italy Goes on the Defensive. Bank of Italy Says It Tightly Supervised Troubled Lender. Italy's banking regulator on Tuesday said it had for years tightly supervised Italian lender Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, BMPS.MI +2.29% which says it is sitting on potentially hundreds of million euros in losses due to risky financial transactions.
Fox News:
  • Pershing Square's Bill Ackman is getting "brushback" from investors in his fund over his battle with Herbalife(HLF), Fox Business's Charlie Gasparino said on Twitter.
CNBC:
  • More to AIG(AIG) Bailout Than Public Knows: Hank Greenberg. Former AIG Chairman and CEO Hank Greenberg said the public doesn't know everything about what went down with the bailout of the insurance giant and he stands by his lawsuit against the government. "In this country the government has the right to nationalize any company, but you have to pay for it. You can't simply take somebody's assets," Greenberg told CNBC's "Closing Bell."
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
The Blaze: 
Reuters: 
  • Exclusive: JPMorgan bet against itself in "Whale" trade. There is a new twist in the London Whale trading scandal that cost JPMorgan Chase $6.2 billion in trading losses last year. Some of the firm's own traders bet against the very derivatives positions placed by its chief investment office, said three people familiar with the matter. The U.S. Senate Permanent Committee on Investigations, which launched an inquiry into the trading loss last fall, is looking into the how different divisions of the bank wound up on opposite sides of the same trade, said one of the people familiar with the matter. The committee is expected to release a report on its investigation in the next few weeks.
  • Broadcom(BRCM) warns of lower first-quarter revenue. Chip maker Broadcom Corp warned on Tuesday that first-quarter revenue would decline from the fourth quarter, sending the company's shares down almost 1 percent in late trade as investors worried about a slowdown in the smartphone market. 
  • FERC backs record market manipulation fine on Barclays(BCS). Regulators correctly found that traders for Barclays Plc manipulated the California power market from late 2006 to 2008 and should pay the record penalties proposed in October, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff said in a report. 
  • Canadian economist says provinces should consider oil hedges. A prominent economist recommended on Monday that Canada's provinces consider hedging their exposure to volatile energy prices, less than a week after Alberta's premier warned of a C$6 billion ($5.98 billion) budget shortfall because of deeply discounted Canadian oil prices.
Financial Times:
  • Wider euro ‘Tobin tax’ will net €35bn. The eurozone’s biggest economies would raise €30bn-€35bn from their planned levy on financial transactions, according to an expansive European Commission proposal that ensnares trades executed in London, New York or Hong Kong.
Telegraph:
  • Spain's crisis strategy under fire as economy buckles again. Spain’s economy has tipped into an accelerating downturn as sales data and the money supply flash serious warnings, calling into question Madrid’s high-risk strategy of refusing an EU-IMF rescue. The country’s retail sales plunged 10.7pc in December from a year earlier as austerity bites deeper, one of the worst months since the crisis began. The Spanish car lobby (Anfac) said the country’s output of vehicles has fallen below 2m for the first time since 1993, crashing 17pc last year. The industry has shrunk by a third since the boom. Ominously, car exports plunged even faster at 18pc, dimming hopes that foreign trade can lift the economy out of slump as internal demand shrinks. While Spanish exports have been a bright spot over the past three years - keeping pace with German exports - the momentum has faltered due to lack of investment. Citigroup said it now expects Spain's economy to contract by 2.2pc this year and another 2pc in 2014, pushing unemployment to 28pc. The effects of the slump will overpower any gains from fiscal austerity. The bank said public debt will surge from 88pc to 110pc of GDP in just two years.
Sueddeutsche Zeitung:
  • German Government May Accede to Cyprus Aid. Pressure from euro countries, EU Commission and ECB is so high that Germany will probably have to support Cyprus aid package. Finance Minister Schaeuble still has concerns about approving the aid. The aid package may be smaller than expected.
  • ECB's Asmussen Sees Struggle Ahead for Crisis Countries. Spain Greece still have a lot of difficulties ahead, ECB Executive Board Member Joerg Asmussen said in an interview. Spanish health reform is needed, which is more difficult than pension reform, he said. Greece has only run "two-thirds of the marathon," and the toughest part is still ahead, Asmussen said.
China.org.cn: 
  • Chinese banks cautioned over financial products risks. A senior Chinese banking regulator on Tuesday warned of risks in banks' wealth-management products, a popular financial product in China, as a frenzy to snatch depositors has led to non-standard operations. Some lenders have failed to disclose sufficient information on the products to their clients, and some are weak in risk management, Wang Yanxiu, head of the novel products department under the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a conference.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Should Strengthen Property Curbs. China should impose differentiated land, tax and credit measures to strengthen property curbs, according to a front-page commentary written by reporters Zhang Min and Zhang Zhaohui. China should study the elimination of credit support to speculative home buyers in areas with fast-rising housing prices.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 +4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 86.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ADT)/.42
  • (NOC)/1.74
  • (LLL)/2.12
  • (ROK)/1.25
  • (MAN)/.77
  • (BA)/1.18
  • (HES)/1.21
  • (SO)/.40
  • (AVY)/.49
  • (QCOM)/1.12
  • (TSCO)/1.03
  • (LVS)/.60
  • (FB)/.15
  • (CTXS)/.84
  • (JDSU)/.14
  • (MUR)/1.36
  • (AVB)/1.39
  • (KNX)/.22
  • (SLG)/1.15
  • (COP)/1.42
  • (FICO)/.73
  • (ATW)/.92     
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • ADP Employment Change for January is estimated to fall to 165K versus 215K in December.
 8:30 am EST
  • Advance 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +3.1% gain in 3Q.
  • Advance 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +1.6% gain in 3Q.
  • Advance 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.7% gain in 3Q.
  • Advance 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.1% gain in 3Q.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,500,000 barrels versus a +2,813,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by +1,000.000 barrels versus a -1,738,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a +508,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.35% versus a -4.3% decline the prior week.
 2:15 pm EST
  •  The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of ntoe
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Spanish/Italian bond auctions, Spanish gdp data, Japan PMI data, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, (RIMM) Blackberry 10 release, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the (KMP) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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