Thursday, October 17, 2013

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Asia’s Waning Competitiveness Seen in Trade Disconnect. Asia’s exporters are failing to benefit from a recovery in advanced nations, putting the onus on policy makers to shift reliance to domestic demand as a driver of economic growth. China’s exports unexpectedly fell last month, while overseas shipments from Taiwan and South Korea also declined. Asia’s export-led growth engine is showing “signs of serious defects,” according to Frederic Neumann, Hong Kong-based co-head of Asian economics at HSBC Holdings Plc, who says the region’s trade data has disappointed over the past couple of years and may be evidence of a loss in competitiveness.
  • BlackRock(BLK) Cuts Hong Kong Investment Seeing Drop in Prices. BlackRock Inc. (BLK) is reducing its investment in Hong Kong, betting the city’s equity and property markets will trail other Asian countries as growth slows in the world’s two biggest economies. Hong Kong stocks may underperform as the U.S. pares stimulus and China tightens credit, said Andrew Swan, head of Asian equities at BlackRock, which manages $3.86 trillion as of June 30. Home values in the city may fall more than 10 percent into 2014 amid government measures to curb prices and rising U.S. interest rates, he said.
  • Asian Stocks Gain as Congress Passes Deal to End Shutdown. Honda Motor Co., which gets about 46 percent of its car sales from North America, gained 1.3 percent in Tokyo. Kansai Electric Power Co. added 2.6 percent after the Japanese utility reported an unexpected first-half profit. Boral Ltd. advanced 5.9 percent after USG Corp. agreed to pay the Australian company as much as $575 million to create a jointly owned building-materials business spanning Asia and the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7 percent to 142.06 as of 11:34 a.m. in Tokyo, with more than three shares rising for each that fell.
  • Rebar Rises for First Time in Three Days on China Capacity Cuts. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai rose for the first time in three days as China said it would cut steel capacity. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained as much as 0.5 percent to 3,586 yuan ($588) a metric ton, before trading at 3,569 yuan at 10:42 a.m. local time. The most-active contract closed at the lowest level in more than three months yesterday.
  • Rubber Rises to Three-Week High on U.S. Debt Deal as Yen Drops. Rubber rallied to a three-week high as U.S. lawmakers reached a deal to raise the debt ceiling, easing concern of a default in the world’s biggest economy. The contract for March delivery gained as much as 2.3 percent to 276 yen a kilogram ($2,795 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the highest level since Sept. 27, before trading at 273.2 yen at 11:24 a.m. local time.
  • Record Copper Output in China Seen by Antaike on Smelter Fees. Copper output in China is set to remain at record levels for the rest of 2013 as high treatment fees encourage smelters in the biggest producer to run at full capacity. Monthly production in the fourth quarter may be about 560,000 metric tons, matching an all-time high in August and above average output of 534,112 tons for the first eight months, said Yang Changhua, an analyst at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. 
  • Euro Capitals Tighten Fiscal Leash as EU Starts Austerity Police. In Madrid, the government is paring spending on roads and rails. In Rome, state property is to be sold off. In The Hague, lawmakers agreed to the second set of extraordinary cuts in two years. Even with the 17-nation euro area projecting economic expansion next year for the first time since 2011, policy makers are keeping a fiscal leash on growth by maintaining austerity policies born in the fight to save the euro.
  • EBay(EBAY) Holiday Quarter Forecast Trails Analysts’ Estimates. EBay Inc. (EBAY) issued sales and profit forecasts that fell short of analysts’ estimates ahead of the key holiday shopping season, citing “dramatically decelerating U.S. e-commerce growth.” Fourth-quarter sales will be $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion, the operator of the largest online marketplace said in a statement today. Analysts on average were projecting revenue of $4.64 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. EBay forecast profit excluding some items of 79 cents to 81 cents a share for the period, below analysts’ prediction of 83 cents.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • House Conservatives Gird for Next Budget Battles. After enduring weeks of barbs by Democrats and even some fellow Republicans for picking a fight with President Barack Obama over the health law, some of the assembled conservatives were eager to return fire.
  • ObamaCare's Black Box. Why the exchanges are worse than even the critics imagined. This isn't some coding error, or even the Health and Human Service Department's usual incompetence. The failures that have all but disabled ObamaCare are the result of deliberate political choices, which HHS and the White House are compounding with secrecy and stonewalling.
Barron's: 
  • Nike(NKE) CEO Sells on Heels of Record High. Four Nike insiders, including the chief executive, sold 181,734 shares for $13,289,735, an average of $73.13 each, from Oct. 1 through 15 through options exercises and open-market selling.
Fox News: 
  • Congress approves bill to end partial shutdown, raise debt ceiling. The House voted Wednesday to approve a short-term bill ending the partial government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling, sending the deal to the president’s desk and capping one of the most bitter and brutal political fights in recent memory. The bill cleared the House on a 285-144 vote, lifted over the finish line by a large chunk of Democrats. All House Democrats voted in favor of the bill and 87 Republicans did as well. 144 Republicans voted against it.
CNBC:
  • Bernanke won't have to testify in AIG(AIG) case—for now. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke does not have to testify in the multibillion-dollar lawsuit by the former chief of American International Group against the United States over the insurer's 2008 bailout, a federal appeals court said on Wednesday.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Washington Post:  
Reuters:
  • Xilinx(XLNX) forecasts weak revenue from industrial, aerospace businesses. Chipmaker Xilinx Inc forecast current-quarter revenue largely below Wall Street's estimates as it expects lower revenue at its industrial and aerospace businesses. Xilinx shares fell 4.5 percent after the company said it expects current-quarter revenue to be up or down 2 percent sequentially.
Telegraph: 
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 104.25 -2.25 basis points. 
  • FTSE-100 futures -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (MTB)/2.09
  • (BBT)/.70
  • (DGX)/1.02
  • (BX)/.56
  • (PPG)/2.34
  • (CY)/.11
  • (NUE)/.39
  • (BTU)/-.03
  • (ADS)/2.66
  • (BGG)-.29
  • (DHR)/.83
  • (UNH)/1.53
  • (FITB)/.41
  • (PM)/1.43
  • (WGO)/.27
  • (BAX)/1.19
  • (VZ)/.74
  • (GS)/2.47
  • (UNP)/2.47
  • (CMG)/2.78
  • (SYK)/.99
  • (COF)/1.81
  • (ISRG)/3.39
  • (LVS)/.76
  • (GOOG)/10.36
  • (VMI)/2.44
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 335K versus 374K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2915K versus 2905K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for October is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 22.3 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's George speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, China GDP/Industrial Production/Retail Sales, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations for Oct., weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (PETM) analyst day, (SAFM) investor conference and the UK retail sales could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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