Thursday, October 31, 2013

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Japan Salaries Extend Fall as Abe Urges Companies to Raise Wages. Japan’s salaries extended the longest slide since 2010, even as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urges companies to raise workers’ wages as part of his bid to reflate the world’s third-largest economy. Regular wages excluding overtime and bonuses fell 0.3 percent in September from a year earlier, marking a 16th straight month of decline, according to labor ministry data released today.
  • China’s Stocks Decline as Earnings Drag on Banks to Drugmakers. China’s stocks fell, heading for the first monthly loss since June, as earnings (SHCOMP) at banks and consumer staple producers disappointed investors. Developers rallied. China Minsheng Banking Corp. slid 2.3 percent after net income trailed estimates. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co. and Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co. both slumped by the daily 10 percent limit after posting earnings. Poly Real Estate Group Co. led a gauge of property stocks to its biggest gain in three weeks after President Xi Jinping said the government will accelerate building public housing. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.7 percent to 2,145.72 at 11:30 a.m. local-time break.
  • Asian Stocks Pare Monthly Gain as Fed Fuels Tapering Bets. Asian stocks fell, trimming the best two-month rally for the regional benchmark gauge since the start of 2012, after the Federal Reserve fueled bets it may start paring stimulus sooner than previously forecast. Alacer Gold Corp. sank 3.5 percent in Sydney as the price of the precious metal declined. Honda Motor Co. (7267) lost 1.8 percent after Japan’s third-largest carmaker reported second-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates amid slowing motorcycle sales in Southeast Asia. National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB) retreated 2.3 percent as expenses climbed at the country’s largest lender by assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 142.70 as of 9:37 a.m. in Hong Kong, with eight of the 10 industry groups on the measure retreating.
  • Rubber Poised for Second Monthly Drop Amid Fed Tapering Bets. Rubber declined for the first time in four days as speculation the Federal Reserve may cut stimulus sooner than previously expected weighed on investor sentiment. The contract for delivery in April, the most active by volume on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, lost as much as 1.3 percent to 261 yen a kilogram ($2,651 a metric ton) and was at 261.3 yen at 11:34 a.m. local time. Futures fallen 1.7 percent this month
  • Rebar Set for Monthly Loss on China’s Weak Winter Demand Outlook. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai headed for a monthly loss amid concern that demand for the building material will be weak in winter ahead. Rebar for delivery in May, the most-active contract by volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, fell as much as 0.4 percent to 3,630 yuan ($596) a metric ton, before trading at 3,638 yuan at 10:16 a.m. local time. The contract lost 1.4 percent this month.
  • Spying Disclosures Seen Undermining Exports of U.S. Technology. The disclosure of U.S. spying on allies may temporarily undercut efforts by American companies to sell technology overseas, according to a former official with the Department of Homeland Security. “We are going to go through a period of substantial skepticism abroad about any technology we’re selling people,” Stewart Baker, a Washington lawyer who headed the department’s policy directorate, said today at a forum on cybersecurity hosted by Bloomberg Government and Symantec Corp. 
  • U.S. Weighs Scanning Social Media for Clues to Rogue Workers. The U.S. government is studying whether it can scour social-media websites for clues about potential threats from workers such as Edward Snowden and the Washington Navy Yard shooter. Both Snowden, a former National Security Agency contractor who leaked government secrets, and Aaron Alexis, who shot and killed 12 people, had security clearances. The cases have exposed a flawed system of vetting such employees, some of whom are slipping through the cracks. The pilot studies, which looked at the feasibility of using automated records checks as well as social-media websites, have turned up “actionable information,” Brian Prioletti, an assistant director in the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, said in testimony prepared for a congressional hearing tomorrow.
  • BofA(BAC) Warns of More Legal Disputes Ahead as Potential Costs Surge. Bank of America Corp., the second-biggest U.S. lender, said the Department of Justice may file another suit tied to mortgage bonds and raised its estimate of possible added losses from legal and regulatory matters by 82 percent to $5.1 billion. A U.S. Attorney’s office intends to recommend civil action against the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender tied to the bundling of home loans into securities, the firm said today in its quarterly regulatory filing. The bank also said its eventual legal costs could exceed even its revised estimates.
Wall Street Journal:
  • McCain Threatens to Delay Confirmation of Yellen as Fed Chief. Republican Senator to Use Delaying Tactic in Bid to Obtain Information on Benghazi Attacks from Obama Administration. GOP Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham will attempt to delay confirmation of Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve in a bid to obtain information from the Obama administration about the attacks on U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya, Mr. McCain said Wednesday. Ms. Yellen, Mr. Obama's pick to become the first chairwoman of the central bank, is expected to secure the support of nearly all Democrats, but a handful of opponents among Senate Republicans have surfaced recently. Sens. Graham, of South Carolina, and McCain, of Arizona, threatened this week to put a "hold" on Ms. Yellen's nomination in an effort to press the White House to release more information about the Benghazi attacks on Sept. 11, 2012. "That's the only way we get their attention," Mr. McCain said in an interview Wednesday evening. "It's the only way we get any response." Mr. Graham's office confirmed he would also hold up Ms. Yellen's nomination to press for more information about the Benghazi attacks.
  • U.S. Seeks Chinese Coordination on Oil Reserves. Over the past five years, China has amassed hundreds of millions of barrels in strategic petroleum reserves. Now the U.S. wants China to work with it to coordinate releases of those barrels when needed to help ensure oil market stability.
  • U.S. General Decries Spiraling Iraq Violence. The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East said Iraq has entered a downward spiral of violence that threatens to drive the country's prime minister further into the hands of Iran.  
  • U.S. Blasts Germany's Economic Policies. Employing unusually sharp language, the U.S. on Wednesday openly criticized Germany's economic policies and blamed the euro-zone powerhouse for dragging down its neighbors and the rest of the global economy. In its semiannual currency report, the Treasury Department identified Germany's export-led growth model as a major factor responsible for the 17-nation currency bloc's weak recovery. The U.S. identified Germany ahead of its traditional target, China, and the most-recent perceived problem country, Japan, in the "key findings" section of the report.
Fox News:
  • Bankrupt solar panel firm took stimulus money, left a toxic mess, says report. A Colorado-based solar company that got hundreds of millions of dollars in federal loan guarantees before going belly-up didn't just empty taxpayers' wallets - it left behind a toxic mess of carcinogens, broken glass and contaminated water, according to a new report.  The Abound Solar plant, which got $400 million in federal loan guarantees in 2010, when the Obama administration sought to use stimulus funds to promote green energy, filed for bankruptcy two years later. Now its Longmont, Colo., facility sits unoccupied, its 37,000 square feet littered with hazardous waste, broken glass and contaminated water. The Northern Colorado Business Report estimates it will cost up to $3.7 million to clean and repair the building so it can again be leased.
CNBC:
  • Obamacare, shutdown hurt Obama's standing: NBC News/WSJ poll. The troubled rollout of the new health-care law and recent government shutdown have exacted a major toll on President Barack Obama's standing, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has found. Obama's job approval rating has tumbled by 5 percentage points in less than three weeks, the survey showed. In the weakest showing of his five-year tenure, just 42 percent of Americans approve of the president's job performance, while 51 disapprove.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
The Blaze:
Reuters:
  • Sins of past, present and future haunt banks. The cost to banks of cleaning up past misdeeds has soared over $100 billion and is leaving lenders running scared from areas that put them in potential danger of upsetting regulators. This week alone, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Lloyds revealed mounting legal bills and Dutch agricultural specialist Rabobank became the latest lender to be fined in a global scandal over interest rate rigging with a $1.1 billion penalty. Bankers fear that paying for the sins of the past and preventing future misdemeanours could be the biggest headache yet for an industry still trying to bulk up on capital and liquidity reserves in the wake of the 2007-09 financial crisis.
  • Starbucks(SBUX) 2014 profit forecast falls short, shares drop. Starbucks Corp conservatively forecast 2014 profit below Wall Street's view, despite fourth quarter profits that jumped 34 percent on strong traffic gains and an increase in spending by its customers. Shares in the world's biggest coffee chain, one of the economy-defying growth companies such as burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill and upscale grocer Whole Foods Market Inc , fell 2.5 percent after hours to $78.80.
  • Visa(V) profit falls as U.S. consumer spending weakens. Visa Inc, the world's largest credit and debit card company, reported a 28 percent fall in quarterly profit due to a higher income tax provision and was slightly pessimistic about its outlook in the face of soft U.S. consumer spending. Visa shares fell 3.1 percent to $197.50 in after-hours trade while those of rival MasterCard Inc fell 1 percent, ahead of its results on Thursday.
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 99.0 -.25 basis point. 
  • FTSE-100 futures -.18%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.34%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (EL)/.73
  • (ABC)/.74
  • (STRA)/.04
  • (MA)/6.94
  • (PWR)/.43
  • (AVP)/.19
  • (CAH)/.85
  • (COP)/1.45
  • (XOM)/1.76
  • (CLX)/1.00 
  • (AAP)/1.42
  • (ZEUS)/.38
  • (CI)/1.62
  • (DISCA)/.73
  • (SPF)/.12
  • (NEM)/.32
  • (FLR)/1.03
  • (MTZ)/.60
  • (FSLR)/.94
  • (MHK)/1.90
  • (PZZA)/.65
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 338K versus 350K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2870K versus 2874K prior.
9:00 am EST
  • ISM Milwaukee for October is estimated to fall to 53.0 versus 55.0 in September.
9:45 pm EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for October is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.7 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The BoJ rate decision, German Retail Sales, Eurozone Unemployment/CPI, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, RBC Consumer Outlook Index for November and the (EW) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

No comments: