Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,923.57 +1.64%*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,923.57 +1.64%

• DJIA 16,717.13 +1.05%

• NASDAQ 4,242.61 +2.13%

• Russell 2000 1,134.50 +1.85%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.87 +2.12%

• Wilshire 5000 29,092.60 +1.64%

• Russell 1000 Growth 894.77 +1.84%

• Russell 1000 Value 969.48 +1.35%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 461.78 +1.86%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,552.05 +2.30%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 937.57 +2.26%

• Transports 8,104.57 +2.29%

• Utilities 544.96 +1.82%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 111.09 +1.81%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.58 -1.08%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,161.83 +.84%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 960.64 -.48%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 222,986 +1.52%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 418 +274

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 33.33 -4.17%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 423,136 +3.15%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,635,600 +1.75%

• Total Put/Call .90 +20.0%

• OEX Put/Call 1.86 +20.78%

• ISE Sentiment 100.0 -30.07%

• NYSE Arms .90 -11.77%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.40 -5.24%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.24 -3.26%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.93 -4.66%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.89 -.14%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,069.16 +.57%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.587 Trillion +.13%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.802 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 36.46 +19.82%

• AAII % Bears 23.30 -12.12%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 305.48 -.70%

• Crude Oil 102.71 -1.01%

• Reformulated Gasoline 297.19 -.62%

• Natural Gas 4.54 +3.75%

• Heating Oil 288.82 -2.27%

• Gold 1,246.0 -3.72%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 196.63 +.25%

• Copper 312.35 -.46%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 363.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.80 USD/Ton -5.85%

• Lumber 312.30 -1.01%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,489.81 -2.21%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 5.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0307 +37.35%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.96 +.22%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.8 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.40 -1.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/18

• US Dollar Index 80.37 +.02%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.81 -.17%

• Yield Curve 210.0 -9 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.48% -5 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.280 Trillion -.12%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.76 +3.68%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 150.0 +7.56%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 34.85 -6.71%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 78.80 -4.88%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 208.52 -3.57%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 80.0 -2.55%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 193.34 -2.55%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 328.99 -5.95%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 19.75 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.21 -1.57%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 72.79 -5.91%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 247.0 -5.61%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 86.0 +1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.774 Trillion -.40%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,028.0 -.90%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 311,500 -11,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.0% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.12% -2 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 362.20 -1.17%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 33.1 -.8 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.80% -30 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.66/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 940.0 -2.69%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,103.56 +.58%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 269,444 +.89%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Computer Hardware +3.5%

• Alt Energy +3.5%

• Airlines +3.1%

• Gaming +2.6%

• Semis +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Tankers -.3% 

• Education -.8%

• Coal -2.3%

• Steel -2.4%

• Gold & Silver -4.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)

• PTCT, HSH, GTT, PARRE, SHLO, MDBX, BCRX, SN, MGNX, AMSG, TRNO and HPQ

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• DAKT, ARUN, SC, AHC, NTLS, ESI, SCVL and DSW

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Metals&Mining/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.52 -.43%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.87 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.89 -.58%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.06 +1.21%

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +18.39%

• Total Put/Call .88 +27.54%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +34.91% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.32 +.18%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.79 +.37%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.85 -.01%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.21 -1.14%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.83 +.29%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 328.99 -5.65%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 19.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 210.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $91.80/Metric Tonne -4.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index-4.80 -1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.40 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headilnes

Bloomberg:

• Russian Forces Back Off Ukraine Border as Fighting Rages. Russia has pulled back most of its troops from the border with Ukraine, according to a U.S. defense official, as government forces continued a campaign to wipe out separatist rebels in the former Soviet Republic’s east. A “majority of the Russian forces” have been withdrawn from the Ukrainian border, Rear Admiral John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters traveling to Singapore with U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. About seven battalions of Russian troops, or “several thousands,” remain, he said. Russia’s withdrawal may be marred by a gas dispute. Talks with Ukraine in Berlin today won’t advance, Ukrainian First Deputy Energy Minister Yuri Zyukov said yesterday.

• Abe Offers Japan’s Support to Southeast Asia on Sea Disputes. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Japan would spare no effort in helping Southeast Asian nations secure the seas and pledged strong support for the Philippines and Vietnam in their maritime disputes with China. “Japan will offer its utmost support for the efforts of the countries of Asean as they work to ensure the security of the seas and the skies, and thoroughly maintain freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight,” Abe said in Singapore today, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Abe’s speech to defense officials at the Shangri-La security forum comes at a time of rising tensions over China’s assertiveness in the East and South China Sea.

• Vietnam Prepares Legal Action Against China, Prime Minister Says. Vietnam has prepared evidence for a legal suit challenging China’s claim to waters off the Vietnamese coast and is considering the best time to file it, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said yesterday in an interview. “We are prepared and ready for legal action,” Dung said, sitting in the prime minister’s compound in Hanoi in front of a bronze bust of Ho Chi Minh, the founder of communist Vietnam. “We are considering the most appropriate timing to take this measure.”

• Brazil Growth Slowed in First Quarter as Investment Fell. Brazil’s economic growth slowed in the first quarter as President Dilma Rousseff, who is up for re-election in October, struggles to rebuild confidence that led to the biggest decline in investment in two years. Gross domestic product increased 0.2 percent in the first quarter, the equivalent to 0.8 percent on an annual basis, down from a revised 0.4 percent in the last three months of 2013. The result was in line with the median estimate of 41 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Investment fell 2.1 percent in the quarter.

• Vale Set for Worst Losing Streak Since 2008. Vale SA (VALE5), the world’s largest iron-ore producer, is posting its worst streak of monthly losses in five years as prices for the steel-making ingredient sink. The shares fell 3.2 percent to 25.79 reais at 11:42 a.m. in Sao Paulo today, bringing losses this month to 2.4 percent. The stock is now set for its seventh monthly drop, the longest losing rout since 2008. Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa gauge is up 0.2 percent this month, its third straight gain. Iron ore sank 4.1 percent today to $91.80 a dry ton and has lost 13 percent in May, a sixth monthly retreat. That’s the longest losing run since the data series began in November 2008. The commodity is down 32 percent this year, entering a bear market in March as the biggest miners raised output, spurring forecasts for a rising global surplus while slowing growth in China capped demand. “The best way to begin to understand Vale’s weakness is to look to China,” Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based fund manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $366 billion, said in a telephone interview. “If China were to decelerate further, it’s reasonable to expect pressure on commodities to continue.”

• European Stocks Little Changed for Seventh Weekly Gain. European stocks were little changed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advancing for a seventh week, as a better-than-expected report on U.S. business activity offset consumer-confidence data that missed forecasts. Societe Generale SA slipped 2.2 percent after Les Echos reported that the French bank’s Russian unit posted a decline in first-quarter profit. BNP Paribas SA fell 2.4 percent as a person familiar with the matter said U.S. authorities are seeking more than $10 billion from the bank to settle investigations into dealings with sanctioned countries. Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. slid as a gauge of commodity producers declined the most on the Stoxx 600. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.1 percent to 344.24 at the close of trading.

Wall Street Journal:

• Moody's Warns on EU New Banking Rules. Rating Agency Says Directive Could Leave Stakeholders Vulnerable to Banking Crises. Moody's Investors Service Inc. has become the latest of the three big debt rating firms to warn that new European Union rules could make stakeholders more vulnerable to losses in any future banking crisis. In response to the EU's so-called Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, under which shareholders, bondholders and some depositors may have to stomach big losses or commit to so-called bail ins to help rescue ailing banks, Moody's has cut its long-term rating outlook on 82 European banks to negative. That means the... 

• Valeant Again Boosts Bid for Allergan(AGN).

Fox News:

• Carney to step down as White House press secretary.

• Shinseki resigns over growing VA scandal. President Obama announced Friday that embattled Veterans Affairs Secretary Eric Shinseki would take the fall for the rapidly growing scandal over veterans' health care, accepting his resignation under pressure from members of both parties. The president announced that Shinseki would resign after they met at the White House and he received an update on an internal review of the problems at the VA. The review showed the problems were not limited to just a few facilities, Obama said, adding: "It's totally unacceptable. Our veterans deserve the best."

CNBC: 

• Fast food CEO: Minimum wage hikes closing locations. CKE Restaurants' roots began in California roughly seven decades ago, but you won't see the parent company of Carl's Jr. and Hardee's expanding there much anymore. What's causing what company CEO Andy Puzder describes as "very little growth" in the state? In part it's because "the minimum wage is so high so it's harder to come up with profitable business models," Puzder said in an interview. The state's minimum wage is set to rise to $9 in July, making it among the nation's highest, and $10 by January 2016.

ZeroHedge:

• CEO Confidence Tumbles To 2014 Lows. (graph)

• Don't Mention The "R" Word. (graph)

• Market Tranquility Is Sowing The Seeds Of Its Own Demise. (graph)

• More Housing Bad News: Household Formation At 30 Year Lows. (graph)

• UMich Confidence Misses; Current Conditions Lowest In 6 Months. (graph)

• Chicago PMI Rises Above Highest Estimate Even As Employment Drops; Prices Paid Soar. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• People Are Starting To Worry That Wall Street Is Taking A Big Post-Crisis Money Maker Too Far.

• Manhattan Condos See Biggest Price Drop In 4 Years.

• A Dotcom Bubble-Era Indicator Is Looking Ominous. (graph)

meps:

• Steel Price Hike in U.S. Heightens Import Threat from China. US flat product producers have successfully implemented at least a proportion of their latest round of proposed increases. However, the upward movements now appear to have stalled. Local supply is slowly returning to normal and the recent hikes, together with expanding domestic delivery lead times, have spurred an interest in imported material.

Business Recorder:

• Real Slides on Swaps; Bovespa Suffers with GDP. Brazil's real fell the most among Latin American currencies on Friday as investors tried to curb losses related to the expiration of currency swaps next week, while Brazilian stocks suffered with weak economic data and a fall in iron-ore prices.

Valor:

• Brazil Vehicle Sales Fall 11% Y/Y in May.

Xinhua:

• China's Instant Messaging Cos. to Crack Down on Rumors. Tencent's WeChat, NetEase's Yixin and other 5 instant messaging applications vowed to clean up illegal contents after the nation's public security ministry started to crack down on spreading rumors or information of violence, terrorism, pornography and fraud from May 27, citing the companies.

Sina:

• CBRC Official Says China Property Loan Risk Controllable. China will not relax or offer discounts for property development loans or mortgages, citing an official at China Banking Regulatory Commission. China must "strictly" control risks from property loans, CBRC says in its 2013 annual report issued today.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.15%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.67% 2) Disk Drives -2.21% 3) Alt Energy -2.01%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BLOX, BNNY, CSTE, NMBL, EXPR, SPLK, RCAP, LGF, VEEV, GES, QSII, MTZ, AFSI, RNET, DISCK, RIO, AERI, NRP, REX, AFOP, ENS, TWTR, AVA, HQL, USLV, NRP and QSII

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JNPR 2) XLU 3) FFIV 4) XLY 5) COG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NFLX 2) LGF 3) CLI 4) JD 5) VALE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.04%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) REITs +.36% 2) Retail +.35% 3) Utilities +.29%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OVTI, RTRX, NPSP, BIG, NLNK, DKS, ANN, PANW and PCYC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CL 2) OVTI 3) NPSP 4) SPLK 5) PEP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BIG 2) OVTI 3) AAPL 4) MNKD 5) NOC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Pivot Pledge Wearing Thin on Hagel Trip as China Sway Rises. President Barack Obama’s emphasis this week on restricting the use of the military abroad risks an unintended consequence: deepening concern about fading U.S. engagement among Asian nations locked in disputes with China. 

• Investing for a China Crisis. China's growing list of problems, including a slowing economy, rising militarism, messy corruption crackdown and increasingly troubled shadow banking sector, could provoke a major financial crisis. In the "never waste a crisis" spirit, a number of investment opportunities present themselves: -- Short Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 67 percent from its October 2007 peak. Even though Chinese stocks may seem inexpensive -- the price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai index over the last 12 months is 9.8, compared with 17.3 for the far more costly S&P 500 -- there is no obvious floor. If China has a financial crisis, the risk to Chinese equities is considerable. Bank stocks may be especially vulnerable. Investors who lack direct access to mainland Chinese stocks can use Hong Kong-listed equities and exchange-traded funds. -- Sell commodities. Industrial and agricultural commodity prices took off in 2002, right after China joined the World Trade Organization. As manufacturers in Europe and North America shifted production to China, its thirst for commodities kept growing. Many producers of industrial materials, including base metals, iron ore and coal, also increased capacity as prices leaped.

• Asian Stocks Rise on Faster Japan Inflation, U.S. Outlook. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest monthly advance since September, as a report showed Japanese inflation accelerated and investors speculated the U.S. economy is recovering from its first contraction in three years. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker, added 1.1 percent in Tokyo. Envestra Ltd. gained 1.1 percent in Sydney as billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Group agreed to buy the Australian gas supplier for A$2.4 billion ($2.2 billion). Lynas Corp., which spent $930 million on a rare-earths processing plant in Malaysia, tumbled 16 percent in Sydney after completing a share placement and as debt-restructuring talks continue. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.2 percent to 142.35 as of 10:04 a.m. in Hong Kong, heading for its highest close since November.

• Iron Ore Heads for Record Losing Streak as Goldman Eyes Supply. Iron ore is heading for a sixth straight monthly decline in the longest losing streak on record as increasing supplies from Australia and Brazil spur a global surplus just as demand growth in China slows. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Tianjin was at $95.70 a dry ton yesterday, 9.2 percent lower this month, according to data from The Steel Index Ltd. The steel-making raw material, which is at a 20-month low, has dropped every month since December in the longest run of monthly losses since the data series began in November 2008.

• Food Replacing Oil as China M&A Commodity of Choice: Commodities. After spending the past decade and more than $200 billion acquiring mines and oilfields from Australia to Argentina, China’s attention is turning to food. The world’s most populous nation is confronting a harsh reality: For every additional bushel of wheat or pound of beef the world produces, China will need almost half of that to keep its citizens fed.

• Beware of Exotic ETFs Bearing Credit-Default Swaps. If you’ve always wanted to bet your savings on risky credit derivatives, now’s the time. In May regulators signed off on a plan to allow trading in eight exchange-traded funds (ETFs) created by ProShares that will hold credit-default swaps—the derivatives that helped bring on the global credit crisis in 2008.

Wall Street Journal: 

• China Hacking Is Deep and Diverse, Experts Say. Intruders Often Work As Hackers For Hire, According to Officials. China's Internet espionage capabilities are deeper and more widely dispersed than the U.S. indictment of five army officers last week suggests, former top government officials say, extending to a sprawling hacking-industrial complex that shields the Chinese government but also sometimes backfires on Beijing. Some of the most sophisticated intruders observed by U.S. officials and private-sector security firms work as hackers for hire and at makeshift defense contractors, not the government, and aren't among those named in...

• Borrowers Tap Their Homes at a Hot Clip. Helocs Jumped 8% in the First Quarter. A rebound in house prices and near-record-low interest rates are prompting homeowners to borrow against their properties, marking the return of a practice that was all the rage before the financial crisis. Home-equity lines of credit, or Helocs, and home-equity loans jumped 8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance said Thursday. The $13 billion extended was the most for the start of a...

• The VA Scandal Is a Crisis of Leadership. Obama's inattention to managing the government may kill the progressive project. The Veterans Administration scandal involves charges of manipulation and falsification of medical waiting lists and systemwide rigging to hide delayed or inadequate treatment, which may have caused the deaths of some of those waiting for care. There are whistle-blowers, allegations of local coverups, and the possibility of criminal charges. Also becoming clearer are two motives for those involved in what appears to have been a racket: their compensation and their career trajectories. This scandal won't go away as others...
  

CNBC:

• Calls for end to crude oil export ban are getting louder. The United States could create nearly a million jobs and lower its domestic energy bills if it ended its crude oil export ban, two reports said on Thursday.

Zero Hedge:

• A Quarter Of Europeans Are At Risk Of Poverty. (graph)

• Ballmer Baller: Former Microsoft CEO To Buy Clippers For $2 Billion: 2nd Highest Price Paid For Any US Sport Team Ever.

• 3 Charts. (graph) 

• As Primary Dealers And Banks Bash Treasurys, Here Is What They Are Really Doing. (graph)

• Dear Japanese Pensioners: You Are The New Proud Owners Of Global Junk Bonds. (graph)

• China's Housing Bubble Desperation In Six Words: "Buy One Floor, Get One Free".

• Abenomics Suffers Crippling Blow: Economy Sputters As Inflation Soars, BOJ QE Delayed Indefinitely. (graph)

Business Insider:

• World Bank Sounds Alarm On Sharp Rise In Global Food Prices.

• Pro-Russian Rebel Factions Are Now Fighting Each Other In Donetsk.

• Michael Bloomberg Blasts Ivy League For Liberal 'Censorship'. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg accused the entire Ivy League of liberal political bias during a particularly fiery commencement address at Harvard University Thursday. "It is just a modern form of McCarthyism," Bloomberg said of university "censorship" of conservatives. "Think about the irony: In the 1950s, the right wing was attempting to repress left wing ideas. Today, on many college campuses, it is liberals trying to repress conservative ideas even as conservative faculty members are at risk of becoming an endangered species" "And that is probably nowhere more true than it is here in the Ivy League," declared Bloomberg.

Reuters:

• Japan consumer spending, factory output skid after sales tax hike. Japan's household spending in April fell at the fastest rate in three years in a sign that consumption could be slow to recover from an increase in the nationwide sales tax, raising questions over the pace of economic recovery. Japanese household spending fell 4.6 percent in April from a year ago, more than the median market forecast for a 3.2 percent annual decline. That marked the fastest annual decline since March 2011, when an exceptionally powerful earthquake triggered a nuclear disaster. Compared to the previous month, spending tumbled by a record 13.3 percent in April, more than the 13.0 percent decline expected by economists. Government data published with the new figures show that household spending fell further after the April 1 sales tax hike than it did after the 3 percent sales tax in was imposed in 1989, and when it raised the tax to 5 percent in 1997.

• Siemens to eliminate 11,600 positions - Bloomberg.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

Financial Times:

• IMF warns ‘rising’ African nations on sovereign debt risks. The International Monetary Fund has warned African nations issuing billions of dollars in sovereign bonds that they could overload their economies with too much debt and derail the best economic period for the region in a generation.

Telegraph:

• US money slump flashes warnings as economy contracts. The US seems caught in a Japan-style trap, endlessly masking the effect by stealing a little extra growth from the future with artificial stimulus.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 -.5 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 80.25 unch.

• FTSE-100 futures -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  -.11%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANN)/.32

• (BIG)/.44 

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in March.

• Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.9% gain in March.

• The PCE Core for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in March.

9:00 am EST

• The ISM Milwaukee for May is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 47.26 in April.
  

9:45 am EST

• The Chicago Purchasing Manager for May is estimated to fall to 61.0 versus 63.0 in April.
  

9:55 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for May is estimated to rise to 82.5 versus a prior estimate of 81.8.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Pianalto speaking, Canada gdp report and the ASCO Meeting could impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less Emerging Markets/Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Energy/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.76 +.68%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.41 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.97 -1.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.34 +.31%

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -2.94%

• Total Put/Call .68 -24.44%

• NYSE Arms .90 -17.56% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.21 -1.13%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.52 -.32%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.86 -.56%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.72 -.75%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.32 -2.30%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 348.68 +.77%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 19.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.25 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 208.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $95.70/Metric Tonne -1.14%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index-2.90 -4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.30 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +49 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/tech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Rebels Kill 14 Downing Ukraine Chopper as Russia Sees War. Pro-Russian rebels downed a military helicopter in eastern Ukraine, killing 13 troops and a general, as an adviser to President Vladimir Putin accused the U.S. of pushing the world toward war through proxies in Kiev. Insurgents shot down an Mi-8 transport chopper with a shoulder-fired missile amid heavy fighting in Slovyansk, 100 miles (160 kilometers) from the Russian border, Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov told parliament today. They also attacked a military base near Luhansk, according to the National Guard. Russia demanded Ukraine halt its “fratricidal war” and withdraw troops from the mainly Russian-speaking regions of the east after separatists suffered the heaviest casualties of their campaign. Western countries should use their influence to stop Ukraine from “sliding into a national catastrophe,” the Foreign Ministry in Moscow said on its website.
• Russia Sanctions Threat Seen Abating Amid Recession Risk. Russia is less likely to face further sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union as the government is sending conciliatory signals toward Ukraine, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed. The U.S. will refrain from escalating punitive measures, according to 66 percent of respondents in a survey of 32 economists, compared with 28 percent last month. The EU will hold off on sanctions according to 84 percent, up from 78 percent in April. The probability of the Russian economy slipping into recession in the next 12 months remained at 50 percent, according to the median forecast in a separate survey. 
• China Threatens Further Action Against U.S. Over Hacking Dispute. China said it will take further action against the U.S. for prosecuting five of its military officers for alleged hacking, saying it has evidence its companies have also been hacked. Online attacks from a “specific country” have targeted Chinese companies, its military and important websites, Ministry of National Defense spokesman Geng Yansheng said. Geng didn’t specify the country in remarks posted on the ministry’s website today in response to a question about the indictment. 
• Bond Surge Worldwide Drives Index Yield to One-Year Low. A worldwide bond-market surge pushed yields to the lowest levels in a year on growing evidence central banks can keep stimulating economic growth without igniting inflation. Treasury 10-year note yields fell to the least since June. A rally yesterday drove the yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index to 1.28 percent, the lowest since May 2013. Australia’s (GACGB10) 10-year yield dropped to an 11-month low, Japan’s slid to the least in 12 months, while European bond yields were close to the lowest since the formation of the region’s shared currency. The U.S. sold $29 billion of seven-year notes at the lowest yield since October.
• Copper Drops From 11-Week High AMid Demand Concerns. Copper fell from an 11-week high in London on signs of slowing economic growth in China and the U.S., the biggest users of the metal. U.S. gross domestic product fell at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, a bigger drop than economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected, government figures showed today. A purchasing managers index due later this week may show little acceleration this month in Chinese manufacturing after the gauge grew less than estimated in April. Copper has lost 6.4 percent this year amid signs of slowing economies.
• Obama Seeks Climate Legacy as Coal-State Democrats Cringe. Obama now is set to release new limits on greenhouse gas emissions by power plants as early as next week. That comes atop the unveiling of a National Climate Assessment in May and executive actions including promoting renewable fuels and building better defenses against extreme weather. Liberated from re-election politics, he’s freer to speak about the challenges of a warming planet and is using his bully pulpit to create urgency on an issue that most Americans rank as a low priority, the aides said. The expansive action is alarming some in the business community, who say the administration’s policies will hurt the economy. “This administration is setting up the next energy crisis in this country,” said Laura Sheehan, a spokeswoman for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity in Washington. “They’re not looking at the long-term consequences.” Obama also faces push-back from some within his own party, who warn that tighter regulations could hamper Democratic candidates in areas where coal is a major source of jobs. Democrats in Kentucky and West Virginia already are distancing themselves from the president’s energy policies, highlighting their opposition to a “war on coal” on the campaign trail. 
• Consumer Comfort in U.S. Falls to Lowest Level Since November. Consumer confidence declined last week to the lowest level since November as Americans’ views of their finances and the buying climate weakened. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 33.3 in the period ended May 25 from 34.1 the prior week. A measure of personal finances retreated for the third time in four weeks, and a gauge of whether this is a good time to buy goods and services dropped to the lowest point since mid-February.
• Credit Trader’s Shift to Rates Shows Where Anxieties Lie. Rate derivatives have become more popular than ever for wagering on whether borrowing costs will rise or fall as the Federal Reserve scales back its unprecedented stimulus. The amount of over-the-counter interest-rate swaps has swelled 30 percent since the end of 2009, to a record notional $584.4 trillion as of December, according to a May 23 CME Group Inc. (CME) report. At the same time, the volume of privately negotiated credit-default swaps has plunged to a notional $21 trillion, 64 percent below the peak of $58.2 trillion in December 2007.

Wall Street Journal:

• DOJ Opened At Least 10 Probes into Bank Processing Activities. 'Operation Choke Point' Disclosed in Government Memo. The U.S. Department of Justice has opened at least 10 civil and criminal investigations into whether banks and payment processing firms helped enable fraudulent activity, according to an internal Justice Department memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal. More than 850 pages of internal documents on the DOJ's probe of alleged fraud in the financial industry were obtained by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Ms. Frimpong, in her memo, wrote that the government had the opened civil investigations into 10 banks and payment processors and was in settlement talks with three of them.
• Doctors' War Stories From VA Hospitals. Administrators limited operating time so that work stopped by 3 p.m. With the recent revelations about the disgraceful treatment of patients by the Veterans Affairs hospitals, the public is discovering what the majority of doctors in this country have long known: The VA health-care system is a disaster.
• Justice Dept. Seeks More Than $10 Billion Penalty From BNP Paribas. French Bank Faces Criminal Probe of Alleged Sanctions Violations. 
• Tyson(TSN) Enters Bidding for Hillshire Brands With $6.1 Billion Offer. Proposal Tops Offer Made by JBS's Pilgrim's Pride, Setting Up Meatpacker Slugfest.

MarketWatch.com:

• Hedge fund assets to hit $5.8 trillion by 2018: Citi survey. The hedge fund industry will double its assets in the next four years to nearly $6 trillion by diversifying products and giving retail investors more access, according to a new survey. Traditional hedge fund clients are high-net-worth individuals, but more and more retail investors will have access to the asset class, according to the latest Citi Investor Services Survey.

Fox News: 

• Obama under bipartisan pressure to oust Shinseki on heels of IG report. President Obama is coming under heavy pressure from both sides of the aisle following a scathing inspector general report to tackle the problems at the Department of Veterans Affairs head-on -- first, by relieving VA Secretary Eric Shinseki of his command. More than a half-dozen Democratic senators are now calling for Shinseki's resignation, since the Office of Inspector General released an interim report on Wednesday finding "systemic" problems with clinics lying about patient wait times.

CNBC:

• Politicians fight back as hedge funders ramp up election spending. (video)
• Fed's Lacker: Expect a positive GDP reversal in the second quarter. (video) Richmond Fed Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker has long called for a narrower and more restrained role for the central bank, arguing that it should shift back to a more traditional and less interventionist role.
• Ford(F) recalls 915K Ford Escape, Mercury Mariner cars in North America.

ZeroHedge:

• Meet Directive 3025.18 Granting Obama Authority To Use Military Force Against Civilians.
• Over A Thousand Soldiers Killed As Ukraine Fighting Escalates, Russian Media Reports.
• 10Y Treasury Yield Hits 2.40%. (graph)
• Someone Is Dead Wrong About The Economy.
• Texas VA Run Like A "Crime Syndicate" Claims Whistleblower.
• "Pent-Up" Pending Home Sales Demand Missing; Down 9.4% YoY. (graph)
• US Economy Shrank By 1% In The First Quarter: First Contraction Since 2011. (graph)
• Initial Claims Drop Near Cycle Low "As Good As It Gets" Levels.

ValueWalk:

• 500 Largest Hedge Fund Managers Control 90% Of AUM. Preqin Research highlights the 505 hedge fund managers with more than $1bn in AUM currently manage $2.39tn of the industry’s $2.66tn total assets, but account for just 11% of active firms.
• Derivatives Worldwide Hit 710 Trillion, According To BIS Study. The Bank for International. Settlements (BIS) just published a statistical study on the amount of derivatives worldwide at the end of 2013, and they reach the astronomical amount of $710 Trillions ($710,000,000,000,000). For comparison purposes, the United States GDP in 2013 amounts to $16 Billion, or 44 times less. And this mass of derivatives beats by 20% the preceding record, dating just before the 2008 crisis… We hear a lot about bubbles these days, in the stock market, the bond market or in the commodities market, but this one is without a doubt the greatest one.

Reuters: 

• Russia tensions to cut emerging market flows -global bank group. Private capital flows to emerging markets are likely to drop to their lowest level in five years in 2014 as money going to Russia dries up due to Moscow's conflict with Ukraine, a global financial industry group forecast on Thursday.

Folha de S.Paulo:

• Brazil Govt Sees Possibility of 2014 GDP Growth Below 2%. Economic growth has become main concern for govt, citing President Dilma Rousseff's aides it didn't identify. Govt sees possibility of trade deficit this year. Investments may be below 2013 level. Govt sees no room for fiscal expansion to stimulate economy; inflation still high.