Monday, April 25, 2016

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Commodity/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.4 +8.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.92 -.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.80 +1.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.40 +2.51%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 67.0 -33.66%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -21.21%
  • NYSE Arms 1.77 +61.26
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.88 +1.95%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,060.0 +2.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.27 +5.42%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.48 +.17%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.95 +3.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 286.44 +1.02%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.13 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 40.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.45 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 107.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $66.07/Metric Tonne -.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.10 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.80 +1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.40 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66% +1.0 basis point
  • 21.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 33.9% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +40 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +26 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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