Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Eurozone/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Market Currency Gains, Oil Bounce, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.42 +.52%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.72 +.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.78 -2.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.66 -.55%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +10.47%
  • Total Put/Call .60 -38.78%
  • NYSE Arms .53 -42.53
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.53 -1.74%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,174.0 -5.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.50 +.95%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.03 -4.57%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 56.35 -2.37%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 273.06 -2.40%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.45 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 41.50 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.34 +.88%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .21% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 102.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.85/Metric Tonne +4.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.90 -12.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.80 +3.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.6 +3.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62% +4.0 basis points
  • 15.7% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 28.9% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs, emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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