Monday, April 11, 2016

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Emerging Market Currency Gains, Metals & Mining/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.30 -.39%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.73 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.64 -1.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.05 +.64%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +17.28%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -12.37%
  • NYSE Arms .83 -17.59
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.66 -1.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,496.0 -2.38%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.96 -1.02%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.18 +2.55%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.84 -.96%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 302.44 -1.42%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.23 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 40.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.70 +.75%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .22% unch.
  • Yield Curve 103.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.62/Metric Tonne +4.79%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.50 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.50 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.1 +3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% -2.0 basis points
  • 15.7% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 27.2% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +79 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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