Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• China and India Have Different Answers for Their Debt Messes. China and India are both grappling with escalating bad debt challenges lurking in their banking systems. Yet the two Asian economic giants are embracing markedly different strategies to clean up the mess. Impaired loans have reached a decade high in China and are at their most in 14 years in India, posing a threat to two economies that increasingly have fueled global growth.
• Singapore Adopts 2008 Crisis Policy as Growth Grinds to Halt. Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly eased its monetary stance, moving to a policy last adopted during the 2008 global financial crisis, as economic growth in the trade-dependent city-state ground to a halt. The Monetary Authority of Singapore moved to a neutral policy of zero percent appreciation in the local dollar, it said in a statement on Thursday. The currency slid the most in five months after the announcement, which came as a surprise to 12 of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who had seen no change in policy.
• Yen Ultra-Bear Standard Chartered Sees 105 as Intervention Zone. Standard Chartered Plc is keeping faith in the power of Japanese authorities to drive the yen back toward a 13-year low against the dollar -- and says currency intervention may be imminent. “They’re close,” Eric Robertsen, the bank’s Singapore-based head of global macro strategy and foreign-exchange research, said in an interview in Tokyo Wednesday. “I would suggest that anything closer to 105 would bring a response.” The yen advanced to 107.63 per dollar this week, the strongest in 17 months, in defiance of comments from officials including Finance Minister Taro Aso and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga that they’re ready to take action to halt its gains. Weakening the currency has been central to Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s efforts to boost inflation to 2 percent. The central bank’s benchmark price gauge has been stagnant for the past year.
• Brazil Real Drops After $5.25 Billion Central Bank Intervention. Brazil’s real fell from an almost eight-month high as the central bank stepped up efforts to weaken the currency after Brazilian assets rallied on renewed speculation that impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff is drawing closer.
• Singapore Dollar Drops Most Since November After Surprise Easing. Singapore’s dollar fell the most since November after the central bank unexpectedly eased monetary policy to combat growing global growth threats to the trade-dependent economy. The local currency dropped for a second day as the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in a statement Thursday it will seek a policy of zero appreciation against an undisclosed basket of currencies. The MAS had a policy of modest and gradual appreciation since April 2010. The economy stagnated in the first quarter from the previous three months, when it expanded 6.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, the trade ministry also reported Thursday.
• Asia Stocks Follow Global Gains as Weaker Yen Buoys Japan Shares. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index on course for its longest winning streak in a year, after global equities erased 2016 losses and the yen held declines against the dollar, buoying Japanese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.8 percent to 130.97 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo, rising for a seventh day. 
• Deal or No Deal, Oil Freeze Seen Having Little Impact on Supply. Oil market watchers see a 50-50 chance that Russia, Saudi Arabia and other major producers will agree to freeze output in Doha on April 17, but either way they don’t anticipate any impact on crude supply because most of the countries are already pumping flat out. While forty analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News were evenly split over whether talks in the Qatari capital will succeed in capping production, a majority of those who predicted a deal said it would have no impact on actual flows of oil. Most producers attending the meeting aren’t able to increase production even if they want to, according to Rystad Energy AS and BNP Paribas SA.

Wall Street Journal:

• CDC Confirms Link Between Zika Virus and Birth Defects. Agency finds enough evidence to conclude it can cause abnormalities in infants of women infected during pregnancy. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday that enough evidence has accumulated for it to conclude that the Zika virus can cause birth defects in the infants of women who are infected during pregnancy.
• Peabody Energy(BTU) Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection. Coal company’s filing includes most of U.S. activities, excludes Australian operations. Coal’s slow collapse pushed the largest U.S. miner to declare bankruptcy Wednesday, marking the end of an era for big publicly traded companies that have fueled American industry for more than a century.
• The Algorithm Is an Editor. Google(GOOG), Facebook(FB) and other tech companies say they aren’t news organizations, but the claim is becoming increasingly implausible. Social media companies quickly are becoming the dominant news providers for many Americans and citizens across the world. The implications of this revolution are significant for how we understand the information ecosystem and our democracy.

Fox News:

• Clinton's call for new immigration office draws fire. Hillary Clinton announced Wednesday she intends to create a new "Office of Immigrant Affairs" if elected president – a plan swiftly ripped by critics as a redundant piece of bureaucracy that might be better politics than policy. The Democratic presidential primary front-runner briefly outlined the plan at a Manhattan event where she picked up the endorsement of the New York State Immigrant Action Fund, an advocacy group. 

Zero Hedge:

• The Fed Just Held An Emergency Meeting To Discuss Capital Markets.
• Following Double-Fed Emergency Meetings, China Devalues Yuan By Most In 3 Months. (graph)
• Startling Inflation News Illustrates The Failure Of Easy Money.
• Singapore Unexpectedly Eases Monetary Policy After "Economy Grinds To A Halt".
• Even The Democrat Establishment Admits Clinton's Disapproval Ratings Are "Pretty Bad". (graph)
• Who Said It: "There Is No Exuberance, No Optimism And Not Much Hope".
• Why The Goldman Sachs(GS) Settlement Is An "Abomination And Insult To All Americans".
• Squeezenado Sends Stocks Soaring To 2016 Highs As Crude Crumbles. (graph)

Business Insider:

• NATE SILVER: Donald Trump's chances of locking up the nomination appear to be dwindling.
• China's about to witness the 'largest evaporation of household wealth in modern history'.
• US officials are worried that driverless cars will be hijacked by rogue nation states.
• Bill Clinton's political baggage has become Hillary's unexpected problem.

Reuters:

• CME to close New York trading floor in computers' victory. CME Group Inc will shut its New York trading floor at year's end as computerized trading claims another victim from the world's old-school financial system. Options pits, where trades in commodities like gold, silver and oil take place face-to-face instead of electronically, will close a year after the CME shut most of its futures pits in New York and Chicago due to shrinking open-outcry volumes. The closures will leave products listed at the company's Nymex and Comex exchanges available only for electronic trading. 
• About 40,000 unionized Verizon(VZ) workers walk off the job. Nearly 40,000 Verizon workers walked off the job on Wednesday in one of the largest U.S. strikes in recent years after contract talks hit an impasse, and got a boost as U.S. Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders joined them at a Brooklyn rally ahead of the New York primary next week. Front-runner Hillary Clinton, who will face Sanders in the primary on April 19, also voiced support for the strikers and urged Verizon to go back to the bargaining table. 
• Seagate(STX) estimates disappointing rev as demand falls in China. Seagate Technology Plc estimated third-quarter revenue and adjusted gross margin below its forecast due to reduced demand for its storage devices, primarily in China. The hard-disk drive maker, which has been expanding into cloud storage products to make up for a declining PC market, also blamed its decision to not aggressively participate in the low-capacity notebook market. Seagate estimated revenue of about $2.6 billion and adjusted gross margin of 23 percent for the quarter ended April 1. The company had earlier forecast revenue of about $2.7 billion and adjusted gross margin of about 25.6 percent for the quarter. Analysts on average were expecting revenue of $2.7 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Seagate's shares were down about 3.5 percent in extended trading. Up to Wednesday close, they had fallen 7.5 percent this year.

Telegraph:

• China's leaders are blowing their last chance to avert an economic crisis.

21st Century Business Herald:

• China Bans Local Govts W/High Risk From Selling New Debt. Districts and countries whose outstanding liabilities exceed fiscal revenue weren't given quotas for new debt following the finance ministry's allocation of quotas for this year's new bond issue to provincial governments, citing a person familiar with the matter.

IRNA:

• Iran-Iraq Joint Oilfield Almost Ready to Produce. Iran's Northern Azadegan joint oilfield with Iraq has made "98% physical progress," citing Karamat Behbahani, director of oilfield development plan. Project to produce 75,0000/bpd. Field estimated to hold 5.6 billion barrels.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.50 -2.5 basis points. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 56.5 -1.0 basis point. 
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.57 -.28%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.17%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (BAC)/.22
• (BLK)/4.30
• (DAL)/1.29
• (PNC)/1.70
• (PGR)/.51
• (TSM)/2.49
• (WFC)/.98

Economic Releases  
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 270K versus 267K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2183K versus 2191K prior.
• CPI MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in February.
• CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in February.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY.  
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, China GDP report, $12B 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (WYNN) annual meeting and the (LAYN) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.