Thursday, August 04, 2016

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Who is Most Dependent on China? (graph) If (or when) China sneezes -- ranging from a sharp devaluation of its currency or protectionist measures to defend local industries -- Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea and Malaysia would be first to feel the chill, according to analysis from Natixis SA. By contrast, Indonesia, India and the Philippines are rather more immune, based on trade, tourism and investment links that were collated by the French Bank's Hong Kong-based economists Alicia Garcia Herrero and Trinh Nguyen.
  • U.S. Derivatives Regulator Again Delays Curbs on Overseas Trades. Wall Street banks got a one-year reprieve from rules that would subject derivatives trades held overseas to tough U.S. oversight. The delay announced Thursday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission exempts some transactions set up in the U.S. to Dodd-Frank Act regulations until Sept. 30, 2017, as long as the trades are held in foreign affiliates.
  • Asian Stocks Rise After BOE Cut as Investors Await U.S. Payrolls. Asian stocks rose, paring their first drop in four weeks, after the Bank of England eased policy and as investors looked to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for hints as to the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up 0.1 percent to 135.46 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for a 0.7 percent decline this week. Japan’s Topix index added 0.2 percent after the Bank of Japan boosted daily exchange-traded fund purchases.
  • Priceline(PCLN) Beats Profit Estimates as Room Night Bookings Grow. Priceline Group Inc. topped profit estimates as the number of hotel rooms booked through its websites increased and the impact of terrorism on tourism to Europe was muted. Shares jumped as much as 6.2 percent in extended trading after the results were released.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Report: Hillary Clinton would hike taxes by $1.3 trillion. (video) Hillary Clinton comes up $2.2 trillion short in paying for her policy agenda, despite hiking taxes by $1.3 trillion, according to a new analysis of the Democratic nominee’s campaign platform.
  • Rep for federal prosecutors blasts Obama over mass commutations. The head of the association representing career federal prosecutors unloaded Thursday on President Obama's decision to cut short the sentences of 214 prisoners, accusing the administration of violating its own clemency guidelines. Obama's was the most commutations ever issued on a single day, according to political scientist P.S. Ruckman Jr., who tracks presidential commutations. His total now stands at 562, more than the previous nine presidents combined. "These aren't little, nonviolent offenders."
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 46.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.59 +.04%
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (CTSH)/.82
  • (MGA)/1.34
  • (BRK/B)/2910.79
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for June is estimated to widen to -$43.0B versus -$41.1B in May.
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 180K versus 287K in June.  
  • The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 4.8% versus 4.9% in June.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in June. 
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for June is estimated to fall to $16.0B versus $18.558B in May.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Factory Orders report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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