Monday, August 15, 2016

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.72 +1.47%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.28 +.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.01 -.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.93 -1.17%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 -25.0%
  • Total Put/Call .76 +1.33%
  • NYSE Arms .57 -48.3
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.53 -1.58%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 721.0 +.46%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.0 -1.71%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.81 -1.91%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.64 -.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.82 -2.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.77 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.50 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 54.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.73 +.45%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 83.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.22/Metric Tonne -.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.70 -3.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.4 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.4 -3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46% unch.
  • 21.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 44.8% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +78 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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