Thursday, August 11, 2016

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Oil Bounce, Yen Weakness, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.5 -4.56%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.74 +.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.15 +.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.61 -1.52%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 60.0 +5.26%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +12.79%
  • NYSE Arms .49 -61.83
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.01 -1.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 711.0 -1.25%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.63 -1.69%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.99 -7.58%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.82 -.49%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 240.84 -1.42%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.66 -.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -2.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 53.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.69 +.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.
  • Yield Curve 82.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $59.36/Metric Tonne -2.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.80 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.40 +2.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.48% +2.0 basis points
  • 25.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 49.3% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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