Friday, August 19, 2016

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Restaurant/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.69 +2.27%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.48 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.98 +1.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.36 +.09%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -38.97%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +12.0%
  • NYSE Arms .91 -9.91% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.60 +.95%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 682.0 -2.96%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.86 +4.25%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.75 +1.85%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.27 +.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 240.98 +.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.40 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 51.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.65 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% +1.0 basis point 
  • Yield Curve 83.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.95/Metric Tonne +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.6 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.6 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.8 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% +1.0 basis point
  • 30.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 52.4% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -70 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/medical/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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