Thursday, August 18, 2016

Stocks Slightly HIgher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Energy/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.71 -3.94%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.43 +.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 -.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.8 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 +12.9%
  • Total Put/Call .89 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.26 +8.4
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.62 -1.54%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 700.0 +.82%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.08 -.86%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.30 +.12%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.63 -2.26%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.38 -.58%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.44 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 50.75 -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -37.75 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.91 +.28%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .29% unch. 
  • Yield Curve 83.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.71/Metric Tonne -.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.3 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.6 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.8 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49% +1.0 basis point
  • 25.1% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 45.8% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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