Monday, January 30, 2017

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Protectionism Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Energy/Hospital Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.2 +15.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.91 -1.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.75 -.28%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.73 +12.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +9.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +8.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.79 +76.19%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.84 +2.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 414.0 +2.93%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.54 +2.75%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.06 +5.68%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.79 +1.82%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.43 +1.11%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.47 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 52.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.0 +4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.59 +.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .50% unch.
  • Yield Curve 128.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $83.34/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.60 -4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.0 +4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.70 -2.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 unch.
  • 32.9% chance of Fed rate hike at March 15 meeting, 47.7% chance at May 3 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -193 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating n/a open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

1 comment:

J said...

Gary,

What do you think of the TEVA debacle? Did the market overdo itself once more? Is it now a buy? Thanks J