Monday, January 30, 2017

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • Asian Stocks Fall, Dollar Holds Losses. The Topix index dropped before a Bank of Japan policy decision. The S&P 500 Index registered its biggest loss of the year as Trump’s order on immigration drew a rebuke from some Republican lawmakers, raising the specter of a rift between the executive and legislative branches. The dollar maintained losses and gold advanced for a third day. Oil was steady after two days of declines. Japan’s Topix slumped 0.8 percent as of 9:51 a.m. in Tokyo, with banks and exporters leading declines for a second day. NEC Corp. tumbled 15 percent after cutting its full-year profit forecast. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.7 percent, led by energy shares.
  • Fed Gives Break to Regional Banks in Annual Stress-Test Demands. Large regional banks and some foreign lenders will get a big break in the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests as the regulator said Monday it would no longer evaluate their plans for managing capital and risk. Letting banks with less than $250 billion in assets out of the so-called qualitative side of the stress tests is a particularly welcome move for the industry, because that part of the test has often proved to be a stumbling block for the companies. In issuing the new rule, the Fed decided that regional banks such as BB&T Corp., Fifth Third Bancorp and Zions Bancorporation don’t pose the kind of threat to the financial system the tests are meant to curtail.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Busines Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.75 +3.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.75 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.62 +.03%
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (AET)/1.44
  • (ABC)/1.23
  • (CIT)/.76
  • (COH)/.75
  • (LLY)/.98
  • (XOM)/.71
  • (HOG)/.31
  • (HCA)/1.79
  • (MAN)/1.71
  • (MA)/.85
  • (NUE)/.34
  • (PCAR)/.87
  • (PFE)/.51
  • (SMG)/-1.25
  • (SPG)/2.57
  • (S)/-.10
  • (UPS)/1.69
  • (VLO)/.78
  • (ZBH)/2.11
  • (AFL)/1.63
  • (APC)/-.50
  • (AAPL)/3.23
  • (CB)/2.41
  • (EA)/2.29
  • (ILMN)/.83
  • (MSTR)/2.72
  • (X)/-.02 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The 4Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.6% gain in 3Q.
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for November is estimated to rise +.7% verssu a +.7% gain in October.
9:45 am EST
  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for January is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.6 in December. 
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for January is estimated to fall to 112.8 versus 113.7 in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Bank of Japan rate decision, German Unemployment rate, Eurozone GDP report, China Manufacturing PMI report and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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