Monday, January 23, 2017

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Protectionism Fears, Yen Strength, Oil Decline, Energy/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.07 +4.59%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.85 -.98%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.94 -.73%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.03 -4.39%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -2.6%
  • Total Put/Call .99 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.58 +99.29%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.61 +1.14%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 472.0 +9.99%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.14 +1.44%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.82 -8.37%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.94 -1.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.52 -.40%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.21 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 55.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.49 +.32%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .48% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 126.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $81.13/Metric Tonne +.90%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.20 -1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 57.90 -5.6 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.30 -1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02 -2.0 basis points
  • 29.6% chance of Fed rate hike at March 15 meeting, 45.2% chance at May 3 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +7 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my in my retail/biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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