Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Oil Decline, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Commodity/REIT Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.70 +2.18%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.0 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.39 +1.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.47 -5.56%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .95 +14.47%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -48.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.04 +2.38%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 360.0 +1.37%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.87 +1.43%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.87 -5.82%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.49 +2.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 214.09 +2.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.68 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.74 -.68%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .73% -1.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 120.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.19/Metric Tonne -2.91%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.80 +7.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.90 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.0 -7.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my in my retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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