Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Rising Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, REIT/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.97 +4.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.46 +.91%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.52 +1.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.78 +1.21%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 -16.18%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +25.0%
  • NYSE Arms .72 +1.42%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.62 -.28%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 378.0 -.49%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 45.66 -1.15%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.96 +13.9%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.50 -1.52%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 121.49 -.25%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.95 +.1%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 24.75 -3.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -59.75 +27.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.69 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.36% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 61.25 +4.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 510.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes -1.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.0 +4.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.10 -4.3 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 +2.0 basis points
  • 72.5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 74.2% chance at May 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -28 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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