Friday, December 15, 2017

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Tax Reform Hopes, Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Retail/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.37 -10.68%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.03 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.59 -.91%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.56 -1.62%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 69.0 -34.91%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +32.50%
  • NYSE Arms .65 -51.96%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.30 -.85%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 378.0 -.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 47.06 +.2%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.33 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.60 -1.73%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 125.76 -.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.60 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 -1.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -99.0 -21.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.20 +.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.31% unch.
  • Yield Curve 52.0 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 515.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +5.96%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.20 -2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.30 -1.7 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .5 -1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 unch.
  • 70.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 73.3% chance at May 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +192 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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