Thursday, January 04, 2018

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Crypto Stock Fever Misses China as Investors Sour on Small Caps. Chinese stock investors don’t seem to share the global enthusiasm for companies jumping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon. Shenzhen Forms Syntron Information Co. has fallen 22 percent since announcing in March an agreement to promote blockchain in Hong Kong and the banking industry. Easysight Supply Chain Management Co. has lost 18 percent since saying in April it will work with IBM to use blockchain. Compare that with the U.S., where companies making everything from juice to sports bras have seen their shares surge after announcing cryptocurrency ventures.
  • Asia Stocks Extend Strong 2018 Start; Dollar Slips. Asian stocks are on the cusp of their best week in almost six months as investors around the world pile into equities at the start of 2018 amid robust economic data from the U.S. to Europe to China. Benchmark indexes in Tokyo and Sydney are in the green after U.S. shares surged to fresh records Thursday. The dollar is headed for a fourth straight week of losses as the global economic expansion spurs investors to look at markets with lower valuations and better risk-return prospects. Commodities steadied after a record run of gains, with oil trading close to its highest in three years. Japan’s Topix Index rose 0.6 percent as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo, and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average was up 0.5 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed after the underlying gauge gained 0.4 percent Thursday to a record close. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallied 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.6 percent.
  • Warren Buffett Says Years of U.S. Growth ‘Certainly Lie Ahead’. Billionaire Warren Buffett remains optimistic about the U.S. economy and the nation's prospects for the future. Buffett wrote an essay for Time magazine that appeared online Thursday, part of an issue edited by Bill Gates that was dedicated to "The Optimists." In his essay, Buffett explained why he often says that most American children will live better than their parents. Buffett said that even if the economy continues to grow at a modest pace of about 2 percent a year, the next generation of Americans will fare better because the economy will still grow faster than the U.S. population does. Buffett said American businesses will also continue to innovate. "This game of economic miracles is in its early innings. Americans will benefit from far more and better 'stuff' in the future," Buffett wrote.
Wall Street Journal:
  • NFL Ratings Fall at Faster Pace. Average audience for a game fell 9.7% to 14.9 million, but league says NFL programming still accounted for 33 of top 50 programs on TV in 2017.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC: 
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are .unch  to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.21 +.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (AZZ)/.58
  • (CALM)/.70
  • (STZ)/1.89
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for December is estimated to fall to 190K versus 228K in November.
  • The Unemployment Rate for December is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in November.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for December are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in November.
  • The Trade Deficit for November is estimated at -$50.0B versus -$48.7B in October.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing for December is estimated to rise to 57.5 versus 57.4 in November. 
  • Factory Orders for November are estimated to rise +1.1% versus a -.1% decline in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Harker speaking and the Eurozone Retail Sales/CPI reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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