Sunday, January 07, 2018

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Earnings Could Boost Asia Stocks to New Record Highs. Asian equities may be at record highs but analysts see earnings season, which gets under way this week, providing a further boost. Profit estimates for all Asian stock sectors were increased over the last three months of 2017, with cyclical shares seeing the steepest upgrades from analysts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Companies that tend to track economic and business cycles -- from technology and energy to consumer and industrials -- had their profit estimates lifted an average 5 percent by analysts, the data show. That compares with an increase of 4.4 percent for the wider MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
  • China’s Foreign Reserves Extend Rising Streak Amid Capital Curbs. China’s foreign-exchange reserves posted an 11th straight monthly increase, capping a year of recovery amid tighter capital controls, a stronger yuan and resilient economic growth. The reserves climbed $20.7 billion to $3.14 trillion in December, according to a People’s Bank of China statement on Sunday, compared with a $3.13 trillion median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. That brought the full-year increase to $129 billion.
  • Asia Stocks Point Higher as Earnings Season Begins. Asian equities looked set to extend gains as the region’s earnings season ramps up this week, with investors betting that the outlook for economic growth and profits is strong enough to support record-high stock prices. Futures on Australian and Hong Kong shares rose in most recent trading, with markets in Tokyo closed Monday for a holiday. Samsung Electronics Co. and a slew of Japanese retailers and manufacturers are among companies giving profit updates this week. Australian bonds fell on Monday, tracking Friday’s move in Treasuries. Most recent futures trading, from late Friday, saw contracts on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rising 0.3 percent and those on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climb 0.4 percent.
  • White House Doesn't See Need for Faster Fed Hikes. The Federal Reserve won’t need to pick up the pace of its planned interest-rate increases in response to the recently-passed tax overhaul package, White House chief economist Kevin Hassett said. The administration’s computer modeling of the economic effects of the tax plan result in interest rates that “aren’t inconsistent with the Fed’s current guidance,’’ he said during a Jan. 6 session at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Philadelphia.
  • Trump Allies Flood Airwaves to Defend the President. “I’ve had to put up with the Fake News from the first day I announced that I would be running for President. Now I have to put up with a Fake Book, written by a totally discredited author,” Trump said. “Ronald Reagan had the same problem and handled it well. So will I!”
Wall Street Journal:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.75 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.50 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.31 +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (HELE)/2.12
  • (SHLM)/.44
Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for November is estimated to fall to $17.8B versus $20.519B in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Rosengren speaking, China Foreign Investment report, German Factory Orders report, Eurozone Retail Sales report, (PSMT)/(URBN) monthly sales updates, JPMorgan Biotech Conference, JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Citi TMT Conference and the Morgan Stanley China Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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