Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.5 +.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.41 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.19 -.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.8 +1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -34.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .65 -12.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -24.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.26 -.72%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 774.50 +.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.02 +.71%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.5 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  64.93 -.66%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 186.27 -1.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.12 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  90.75 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.75 +.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.37 +.38%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 52.25 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 122.10 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 253.1 +13.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 183.0 -7.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.2 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +29 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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