Thursday, August 20, 2020

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.09 -.10%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.45 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.54 +.24%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 +2.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.30 +23.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.09 +.82%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 779.86 +.49%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.83 +1.45%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.25 +1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.02 +1.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 187.19 +1.11%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.23 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  88.5 +1.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.20 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .9% unch.
  • Yield Curve 50.75 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 123.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 249.6 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 182.20 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.4 +3.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63 -4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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