Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Vaccine Optimism, Global Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Transport/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.7 -1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.96 +.81%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.8 -2.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 130 .0 +19.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .60 -9.09%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 +38.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.11 -1.25%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 754.42 -.74%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.32 -3.33%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.5 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.90 -2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 182.0 -3.02%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.12 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 -.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  81.0 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.46 +.65%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 45.25 +4.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.90 USD/Metric Tonne -1.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 225.2 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 212.40 +4.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.6 +9.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +99 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -92 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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