Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Optimism, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Biotech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.6 +1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.39 +.71%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.08 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.1 +3.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +22.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .60 -21.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 +94.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.19 -.09%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 769.15 -.86%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.97 +1.21%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.75 +1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  62.10 -1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.03 +.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.39 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  89.5 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.16 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 50.5 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 235.30 -1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 146.60 +13.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.7 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -53 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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