Monday, August 31, 2020

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Biden Presidency Odds, Global Stimulus Hopes, Momentum Chasing, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.8 +8.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 548.0 -72.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.97 +.76%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.14 +.91%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.8 +16.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 -22.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 +.10%
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 +80.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.12 -1.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 760.65 +.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.42 +.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.5 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  61.16 -1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 172.08 -1.66%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.82 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  92.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.66 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  • Yield Curve 60.0 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.74 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 242.50 -31.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 132.6 -19.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.1 -15.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +11 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -174 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

 

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