Thursday, August 06, 2020

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Diminished Global Recession Fears, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Gaming/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.8 -.74%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.94 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +4.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.1 -1.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111 .0 -3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .54 -20.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.25 +31.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.69 -.85%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 815.77 +.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.15 +1.94%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 148.0 -2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  67.66 -1.75%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.44 unch,
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.07 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  82.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.92 -.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 42.5 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.90%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 221.9 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 208.40 +28.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.3 -1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -43 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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