Monday, October 05, 2020

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Trump Health Improvement, Stimulus Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Biotech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.5 +3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.0 +43.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.98 +.84%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.0 -3.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -14.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .73 -18.0%
  • NYSE Arms .74 +12.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.37 -3.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 846.09 -.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.52 -2.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 -.81%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 216.45 -4.49%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.09 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.75 -2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.51 +.38%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 57.5 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.34 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 159.4 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.80 +8.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.0 -3.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +53 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +77 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer staple/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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