Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stimlus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.7 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 125.0 +107.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.24 +.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.91%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.60 -1.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +24.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .72 -12.2%
  • NYSE Arms .68 -44.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.07 -2.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 806.44 -.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.52 +.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.97 +.94%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 203.29 -2.1%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.50 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  81.5 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.66 +.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 62.0 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.23 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 128.1 -2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.40 -5.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.80 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -63 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer staple/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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