Friday, October 09, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stimlus Hopes, Virus Vaccine/Treatment Optimism, Less European/Emergiong Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.4 -3.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 386.0 +61.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.37 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.56 -.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.5 -4.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +6.6 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 -1.3%
  • NYSE Arms .90 +60.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 -3.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 808.19 -.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.05 -3.75%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 125.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.69 -4.26%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 197.96 -4.3%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.61 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.5 -1.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.0 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.5 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.83 +.70%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 62.5 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 121.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 149.9 -3.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.70 +2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.9 -1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +11 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/consumer staple/tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

 

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