Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Stocks Close Substantially Lower on Regulation/Tax Hike Fears, Dollar Strength, Forced Selling, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.6 +29.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,467.0 -523.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.41 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 +.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.0 +.06%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .71 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .21 -75.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.95 +4.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 523.54 +1.36%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.55 +2.89%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.43 +.36%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 174.40 +2.61%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.36 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  66.75 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.91 -.59%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 91.75 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 159.25 USD/Metric Tonne -3.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.60 -10.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 91.0 -51.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.10 -6.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -410 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -223 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -89 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my energy/biotech/medical/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

No comments: