Thursday, January 14, 2021

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Rise, Virus Shutdown Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.4 +.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,030.0 -20.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.50 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.4 -3.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .64 -24.7%
  • NYSE Arms .61 -62.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -.15%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 497.60 -1.37%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.6 +2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.23 -1.64%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.31 -1.71%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.76 -.38%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 +.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 95.75 -2.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 169.23 USD/Metric Tonne +3.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.20 -3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 162.90 -2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.9 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +182 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +112 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my energy longs and took profits in my consumer staple longs
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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