Monday, January 11, 2021

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Divisive Political Rhetoric/Actions, Free Speech Worries, Valuation Concerns, Tech/Telecom Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.1 +11.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,895.0 -160.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.14 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.92 +2.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.5 +3.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .73 +1.4%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -52.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.77 +2.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 510.67 -.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.90 +2.94%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.58 +3.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.90 +5.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.88 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.75 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.11 -.72%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 96.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 164.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.0 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 167.20 -4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.70 -3.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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